Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T22:36:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
AE 0xaed8…860c crypto 477 markets active 1h ago coverage 22d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$108 (+5%) realized +$108 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate77%367W / 110L
Drawdown70%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day36.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$46
14 days+$36
30 days+$63
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$63
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-6.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 169 +4.8% -5.2% 78% 47% -3.8%
≤30d 477 +3.8% -6.1% 77% 46% -6.7%
≤90d 477 +3.8% -6.1% 77% 46% -6.7%
all 477 +3.8% -6.1% 77% 46% -6.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover36.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -6.1% 46% -6.7%
10% ← realistic here -15.1% 29% -15.6%
15% -23.3% 17% -23.8%
20% -30.8% 10% -31.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
37% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +6% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$3 · ×0.35 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.17 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

22d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$108
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)77%
Wins / losses367 / 110
Open positions0
Markets (closed)477 / 477
History coverage22d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day36.1
Drawdown70%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 477 Trades
no open positions (86 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 16 $4 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$4 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 16 $4 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 16 $3 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 16 $4 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 16 $4 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$2 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 15 $4 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$8 +150%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$1 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 15 $4 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 15 $4 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 15 $4 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 14 $4 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 14 $4 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 14 $3 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 14 $4 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$4 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 14 $4 $0 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 14 $3 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$4 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$2 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 14 $3 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$3 +55%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET SELL Down 83¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET SELL Up 98¢ $9 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET SELL Down 88¢ $4 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $4 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $4 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET SELL Up 80¢ $4 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $3 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET SELL Down 79¢ $4 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $4 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET SELL Up 92¢ $5 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $4 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $5 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $4 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET SELL Up 71¢ $6 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $2 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $3 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET SELL Down 91¢ $5 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $4 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $5 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $4 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET SELL Up 88¢ $4 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $3 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $4 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $4 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET SELL Down 83¢ $4 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $4 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $5 27h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.44 · official $0.00 (match) · 886 history records