Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T09:34:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5
score
AE 0xaed6…b718 other 3 markets active 2h ago coverage 14d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate33%1W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$104per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit0%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 14d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 100% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.1% -9.6% 50% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 3 -0.1% -9.6% 33% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 3 -0.1% -9.6% 33% 0% -9.6%
all 3 -0.1% -9.6% 33% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.2% 0% -18.2%
15% -26.1% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.16 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.58 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

14d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses1 / 2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)3 / 3
History coverage14d
Avg bet$104
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 3 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 26 $104 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $103 $0 +0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $103 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $103 1h
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $104 11h
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $104 3d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $103 4d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $103 13d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $103 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 9 history records