Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T06:21:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AE 0xaed5…981d sports 877 markets active 1h ago coverage 226d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$11,363 (-10%) realized −$11,245 · open −$118
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate49%429W / 445L
Whale WR46%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$127per market
Trades / day9.4pace
Fees−$1,293est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$188now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$185
7 days−$180
14 days−$7,261
30 days−$7,424
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$12,720
other 0% +$185
finance 0% +$7
economics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-13.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -56.2% -60.4% 17% 17% -65.7%
≤30d 220 -16.0% -24.0% 41% 37% -25.5%
≤90d 728 -18.5% -26.3% 40% 36% -22.2%
all 874 -4.5% -13.6% 49% 43% -19.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.6% 43% -19.7%
10% -21.9% 36% -27.4%
15% -29.4% 30% -34.4%
20% -36.3% 24% -40.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 46% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -4% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$76 vs −$101 · ×0.75 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.72 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

226d coverage
Net worth$188
Realized−$11,245
Unrealized−$118
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses429 / 445
Whale WR (big bets)46%
Est. fees paid−$1,293
Open positions3
Markets (closed)874 / 877
History coverage226d
Avg bet$127
Trades / day9.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 874 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 3 Winner T1 80¢ 100¢ $150 $187 +$37 (+25%)
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 3 Winner Karmine Corp 8¢ 0¢ $27 $0 −$27 (-99%)
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 2 Winner Karmine Corp 62¢ 0¢ $90 $0 −$90 (-100%)
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 1 Winner Karmine Corp 8¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 28 $31 −$31 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner Jun 28 $71 −$25 -35%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 28 $100 −$100 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner Jun 28 $31 −$30 -98%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 27 $30 +$14 +48%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 24 $6 +$13 +212%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner Jun 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 24 $8 −$8 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 21 $166 +$120 +72%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 21 $101 +$45 +44%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs Leviatán Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 21 $3 −$3 -100%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 1 Winner Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner Jun 21 $18 +$15 +84%
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS - Game 2 Winner Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 21 $3 −$3 -100%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 21 $4 −$4 -100%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 21 $7 −$7 -100%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 21 $3 −$3 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner Jun 21 $7 −$7 -100%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play Jun 21 $261 +$313 +120%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 21 $6 −$6 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner Jun 21 $3 −$3 -100%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner Jun 21 $7 −$7 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner Jun 21 $46 +$44 +95%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner Jun 21 $7 −$7 -100%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner Jun 21 $144 −$1 -0%
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars vs LOS - Game 2 Winner Jun 21 $11 −$11 -100%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex - Map 1 Winner Jun 21 $18 +$14 +78%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 21 $26 −$9 -34%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 21 $45 +$8 +18%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 21 $200 −$200 -100%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 3 Winner Jun 21 $155 −$155 -100%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 21 $198 −$84 -43%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 21 $139 −$139 -100%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoff Jun 21 $263 −$263 -100%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex - Map 2 Winner Jun 21 $147 −$147 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 21 $491 +$18 +4%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 21 $1,569 −$1,569 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 21 $1,653 −$1,653 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 21 $3,007 −$3,007 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 21 $15 −$15 -100%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 21 $107 +$287 +267%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 21 $83 +$17 +20%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 21 $53 −$53 -100%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 21 $102 −$102 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 3 Winner BUY Karmine Corp 5¢ $8 59m
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 3 Winner BUY Karmine Corp 11¢ $19 1h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 3 Winner BUY Karmine Corp 11¢ $0 1h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 80¢ $151 1h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 2 Winner SELL T1 100¢ $366 1h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 66¢ $202 1h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 2 Winner BUY Karmine Corp 62¢ $91 2h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 72¢ $45 2h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 1 Winner BUY Karmine Corp 8¢ $2 3h
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Deep Cross Gaming 11¢ $0 23h
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Deep Cross Gaming 11¢ $3 23h
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Deep Cross Gaming 11¢ $2 23h
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Deep Cross Gaming 11¢ $11 23h
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Deep Cross Gaming 11¢ $6 23h
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Deep Cross Gaming 11¢ $2 23h
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Deep Cross Gaming 11¢ $7 23h
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY Deep Cross Gaming 25¢ $55 24h
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY Deep Cross Gaming 25¢ $6 24h
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY Deep Cross Gaming 25¢ $6 24h
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY Deep Cross Gaming 25¢ $33 24h
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner BUY Team Liquid 22¢ $31 25h
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 65¢ $30 25h
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Liquid 70¢ $40 26h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Belgium 67¢ $30 2d
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 5d
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 5d
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 12¢ $2 5d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 15¢ $1 5d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 6d
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $187.66 · official $187.66 (match) · 2762 history records