trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | no closed markets | |||||
| ≤30d | 8 | -11.3% | -19.7% | 25% | 25% | -17.3% |
| ≤90d | 14 | -3.3% | -12.5% | 29% | 29% | +19.6% |
| all | 22 | -18.7% | -26.4% | 18% | 18% | -20.6% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -26.4% | 18% | -20.6% |
| 10% | -33.4% | 9% | -28.2% |
| 15% | -39.9% | 9% | -35.1% |
| 20% | -45.8% | 5% | -41.5% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026? | Yes | 66¢ | 64¢ | $1 | $1 | −$0 (-2%) |
| Ukraine election called by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 20¢ | 18¢ | $1 | $1 | −$0 (-7%) |
| Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? | Yes | 13¢ | 12¢ | $1 | $1 | −$0 (-8%) |
| Ukraine agrees not to join NATO before 2027? | Yes | 18¢ | 16¢ | $1 | $1 | −$0 (-14%) |
| Ukraine peace referendum scheduled by December 31? | Yes | 23¢ | 16¢ | $1 | $1 | −$0 (-30%) |
| Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? | Yes | 29¢ | 28¢ | $0 | $0 | −$0 (-2%) |
| Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by June 30? | Yes | 6¢ | 4¢ | $0 | $0 | −$0 (-37%) |
| Will Zelenskyy talk to Putin by December 31? | Yes | 36¢ | 36¢ | $0 | $0 | −$0 (-1%) |
| Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy by June 30, 2026? | Yes | 2¢ | 1¢ | $0 | $0 | −$0 (-66%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? | Jun 07 | $33 | −$6 | -20% |
| Ukraine election held by December 31, 2026? | May 28 | $51 | +$6 | +12% |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? | May 27 | $196 | −$7 | -3% |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? | May 27 | $101 | −$25 | -25% |
| Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by June 30, 2026? | May 25 | $236 | +$45 | +19% |
| Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? | May 25 | $160 | −$65 | -40% |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? | May 24 | $81 | −$22 | -27% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | May 18 | $10 | −$1 | -6% |
| Starmer out by May 19, 2026? | May 14 | $17 | −$1 | -3% |
| Starmer out by May 15, 2026? | May 14 | $36 | −$2 | -6% |
| Will Trump and Putin meet next in China? | May 14 | $90 | −$59 | -65% |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? | May 11 | $1,129 | +$838 | +74% |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? | May 09 | $934 | +$421 | +45% |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026? | May 09 | $404 | −$3 | -1% |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026? | Mar 16 | $123 | −$18 | -14% |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? | Mar 13 | $1,334 | −$597 | -45% |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by February 28, 2026? | Feb 05 | $1,366 | −$400 | -29% |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by January 31, 2026? | Jan 24 | $5,538 | −$1,056 | -19% |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before October? | Jan 23 | $18 | −$6 | -33% |
| Will Zelenskyy talk to Putin by December 31? | Jan 23 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| US strikes Iran by January 13, 2026? | Jan 13 | $12 | −$5 | -42% |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? | Dec 29 | $697 | −$575 | -82% |