Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T18:45:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AE 0xaecf…7cfe world 42 markets active 2h ago coverage 461d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$5 (-0%) realized −$5 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate30%12W / 28L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$154per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$68now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days−$3
14 days−$16
30 days−$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 42% +$14
world 27% −$19
sports 11% $0
economics 11% −$1
politics 5% $0
culture 4% +$2
crypto 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-10.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -1.3% -10.7% 20% 0% -10.5%
≤30d 20 +0.3% -9.3% 20% 10% -10.1%
≤90d 32 -1.6% -11.0% 19% 6% -9.9%
all 40 -1.0% -10.4% 30% 5% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.4% 5% -9.6%
10% -19.0% 2% -18.2%
15% -26.8% 0% -26.1%
20% -34.0% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 61% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
83% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$2 · ×1.68 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

461d coverage
Net worth$68
Realized−$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses12 / 28
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)40 / 42
History coverage461d
Avg bet$154
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 40 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? No 92¢ 92¢ $68 $68 −$0 (-1%)
Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026? No 93¢ 95¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 24 $13 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 23 $31 −$2 -5%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 21 $118 −$2 -1%
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 20 $70 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $71 $0 -0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $3 +$1 +26%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 15 $151 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 15 $17 −$2 -9%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 15 $206 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $72 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $166 −$9 -6%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $21 −$2 -9%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $116 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 06 $189 −$1 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $45 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 04 $85 −$2 -3%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 04 $90 $0 +0%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 03 $84 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 29 $65 +$9 +13%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 27 $24 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 26 $85 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 25 $77 $0 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 25 $83 −$7 -8%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 24 $7 −$3 -40%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 23 $86 $0 +0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 24 $724 −$1 -0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 23 $724 −$1 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 23 $2 $0 -3%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 23 $145 −$1 -1%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $726 $0 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 22 $725 $0 +0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 21 $21 −$1 -6%
Will Ryan Coogler win Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 11 $230 +$2 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from March 6 to March 13, 2026? Mar 10 $178 +$8 +4%
Will Tran Luu Quang be the next Prime Minister of Vietnam? Mar 09 $60 −$1 -1%
Will Phan Văn Giang be the next President of Vietnam? Mar 09 $6 $0 -1%
Will Lê Minh Hưng be the next Prime Minister of Vietnam? Mar 09 $246 +$1 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026? Mar 09 $214 +$10 +5%
Will Matt Fitzpatrick win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 07 $6 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2025? Dec 18 $11 +$1 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $68 1h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $13 39h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $13 44h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 38¢ $29 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 40¢ $24 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 40¢ $7 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 74¢ $37 4d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 74¢ $7 4d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 74¢ $33 4d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 74¢ $77 4d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 25¢ $40 4d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 26¢ $12 4d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 26¢ $29 4d
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 94¢ $70 5d
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 94¢ $70 5d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $57 6d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $13 6d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $71 6d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $3 8d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $3 8d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 70¢ $78 9d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 71¢ $79 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 10¢ $4 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 10¢ $12 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 11¢ $17 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 63¢ $73 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 63¢ $73 10d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 70¢ $74 10d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 69¢ $72 11d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 81¢ $31 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $67.98 · official $67.71 (match) · 158 history records