Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T16:53:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
AE 0xaecd…ef91 crypto 52 markets active 2h ago coverage 522d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$4 (-0%) realized −$4 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate80%41W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$135per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$56now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 85% −$6
crypto 12% +$1
sports 1% $0
economics 1% $0
tech 0% $0
weather 0% $0
politics 0% $0
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 1 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 4 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
all 51 +0.1% -9.4% 80% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.1% 0% -18.2%
15% -26.0% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.2% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.06 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.26 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

522d coverage
Net worth$56
Realized−$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)80%
Wins / losses41 / 10
Open positions1
Markets (closed)51 / 52
History coverage522d
Avg bet$135
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 51 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will XRP dip to $0.60 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $56 $56 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in May? Jun 03 $59 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in April? May 05 $56 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid dip to $12 in March? Apr 02 $10 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in March? Apr 02 $53 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.25 in February? Mar 03 $20 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.00 in February? Mar 03 $41 $0 +0%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? Feb 02 $17 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in January? Feb 02 $42 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $220 in December? Jan 02 $11 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,200 in December? Jan 02 $54 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.60 in November? Dec 03 $22 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $5,200 in November? Dec 03 $28 $0 +0%
Ethereum all time high by October 31? Nov 04 $14 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $270 in October? Nov 04 $41 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $4.50 in September? Oct 02 $12 $0 +0%
Will Alibaba have the top AI model on September 30? Oct 02 $17 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $5600 in September? Oct 02 $30 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $290 in August? Sep 02 $18 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $130K in August? Sep 02 $38 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $2.0 in July? Aug 04 $15 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $140K in July? Aug 04 $43 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $100 in June? Jul 03 $22 $0 +0%
Ethereum all time high by June 30? Jul 03 $31 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.50 in May? Jun 17 $5 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $120 in May? Jun 17 $8 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3500 in May? Jun 17 $9 $0 +0%
Will ETH hard fork before May? May 04 $4 $0 +0%
Mike Waltz out of Trump administration before May? May 04 $5 $0 +0%
Will Trump audit Ukraine aid before May? May 04 $6 $0 +0%
Bitcoin all time high in April? May 04 $8 $0 +0%
Will Xi visit the US before May? May 04 $8 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $190 in April? May 04 $8 $0 +1%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.24 in April? May 04 $17 $0 +0%
Will Iceland win Eurovision 2025? Apr 12 $5,783 −$6 -0%
Bitcoin all time high by March 31? Apr 03 $5 $0 +0%
Solana all time high by March 31? Apr 03 $11 $0 +0%
Ethereum all time high by March 31? Apr 03 $17 $0 +0%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after May 2025 meeting? Mar 23 $59 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2025 World Series? Mar 23 $54 $0 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Mar 22 $37 $0 -0%
Will Clint Capela lead the NBA in Rebounds? Mar 20 $62 $0 -0%
Will global temperature increase by more than 1.39ºC in February 2025? Mar 08 $28 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 by February 28, 2025? Mar 02 $14 $0 +0%
Will Trump post 140-159 times on Truth Feb 21-28? Mar 02 $14 $0 +0%
Will Torino win the Serie A? Feb 23 $10 $0 -0%
Aston Villa wins the Premier League? Feb 21 $13 $0 -0%
Will Solana dip to $140 by January 31, 2025? Feb 21 $14 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $4,000 by January 31, 2025? Feb 21 $15 $0 +0%
Will Ollie Watkins be the top goalscorer in the EPL? Feb 13 $11 $0 -0%
Will Hoffenheim win the UEFA Europa League? Jan 28 $23 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will XRP dip to $0.60 in June? BUY No 100¢ $56 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $59 30d
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in April? BUY No 100¢ $56 61d
Will Hyperliquid dip to $12 in March? BUY No 100¢ $10 93d
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in March? BUY No 100¢ $53 93d
Will Dogecoin reach $0.25 in February? BUY No 100¢ $20 121d
Will XRP reach $3.00 in February? BUY No 100¢ $41 122d
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? BUY No 100¢ $17 149d
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in January? BUY No 100¢ $42 150d
Will Solana reach $220 in December? BUY No 100¢ $11 180d
Will Ethereum reach $4,200 in December? BUY No 100¢ $19 182d
Will Ethereum reach $4,200 in December? BUY No 100¢ $35 182d
Will XRP reach $3.60 in November? BUY No 100¢ $22 211d
Will Ethereum reach $5,200 in November? BUY No 100¢ $28 211d
Ethereum all time high by October 31? BUY No 100¢ $14 240d
Will Solana reach $270 in October? BUY No 100¢ $41 242d
Will XRP reach $4.50 in September? BUY No 100¢ $12 271d
Will Alibaba have the top AI model on September 30? BUY No 100¢ $17 272d
Will Ethereum reach $5600 in September? BUY No 100¢ $30 273d
Will Solana reach $290 in August? BUY No 100¢ $18 300d
Will Bitcoin reach $130K in August? BUY No 100¢ $38 302d
Will XRP dip to $2.0 in July? BUY No 100¢ $15 332d
Will Bitcoin reach $140K in July? BUY No 100¢ $43 333d
Will Solana dip to $100 in June? BUY No 100¢ $22 362d
Ethereum all time high by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $31 363d
Will XRP reach $3.50 in May? BUY No 100¢ $5 393d
Will Solana dip to $120 in May? BUY No 100¢ $8 394d
Will Ethereum reach $3500 in May? BUY No 100¢ $9 394d
Mike Waltz out of Trump administration before May? BUY No 100¢ $5 423d
Will Trump audit Ukraine aid before May? BUY No 100¢ $6 423d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $56.33 · official $56.33 (match) · 108 history records