Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T21:13:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AE 0xaecc…5910 sports 16 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$127 (-10%) realized −$46 · open −$81
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -29% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -41% what you keep after slip
Net edge-41%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate29%4W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$80per market
Trades / day11.3pace
Fees−$18est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 86% −$130
crypto 8% −$59
other 6% −$34
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-35.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -29.0% -35.7% 29% 29% -21.2%
≤30d 14 -29.0% -35.7% 29% 29% -21.2%
≤90d 14 -29.0% -35.7% 29% 29% -21.2%
all 14 -29.0% -35.7% 29% 29% -21.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -35.7% 29% -21.2%
10% -41.9% 29% -28.8%
15% -47.5% 29% -35.6%
20% -52.7% 14% -41.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 51% · top 2 76% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -29% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -18% → late -40% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$81 vs −$46 · ×1.73 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.69 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$46
Unrealized−$81
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses4 / 10
Est. fees paid−$18
Open positions1
Markets (closed)14 / 16
History coverage2d
Avg bet$80
Trades / day11.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 14 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: United States (-2.5) United States 50¢ 0¢ $81 $0 −$81 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 19 $166 −$3 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 19 $47 −$45 -96%
Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $20 −$2 -10%
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $30 −$2 -6%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Korea Republic O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $183 −$181 -99%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $102 −$100 -98%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 6.5 Jun 19 $202 +$80 +40%
Spread: Canada (-4.5) Jun 18 $61 −$60 -98%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 18 $101 +$166 +165%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $101 +$65 +64%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 17 $16 −$16 -98%
Will South Korea win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $31 −$30 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 17 $26 +$11 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 17 $27 −$25 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) AND Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY 18¢ $80 3m
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) SELL Brazil 51¢ $81 5m
Spread: United States (-2.5) BUY United States 50¢ $82 1h
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) SELL Brazil 52¢ $82 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $47 12h
Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 29¢ $18 12h
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 45¢ $29 12h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Korea Republic O/U 0.5 BUY Over 67¢ $183 20h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 42¢ $102 20h
Spread: Canada (-4.5) BUY Qatar 23¢ $61 21h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 71¢ $202 21h
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) SELL Switzerland 100¢ $266 23h
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Switzerland 37¢ $101 25h
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Brazil 51¢ $166 43h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 100¢ $166 44h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $16 46h
Will South Korea win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 35¢ $31 46h
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 47¢ $30 46h
Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 31¢ $20 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $26 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $27 46h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 60¢ $101 46h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.08 · official $78.59 · 24 history records