Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T11:18:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AE 0xaec9…8de6 sports 33 markets active 1h ago coverage 7d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$3,518 (-35%) realized −$3,495 · open −$23
Gross ROI / mkt -24% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate31%9W / 20L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$307per market
Trades / day6.9pace
Fees−$135est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$2,305now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 7d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 85% −$2,963
crypto 12% −$495
other 3% −$102
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-30.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 -23.6% -30.9% 31% 31% -52.2%
≤30d 29 -23.6% -30.9% 31% 31% -52.2%
≤90d 29 -23.6% -30.9% 31% 31% -52.2%
all 29 -23.6% -30.9% 31% 31% -52.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -30.9% 31% -52.2%
10% -37.5% 31% -56.7%
15% -43.5% 31% -60.9%
20% -49.1% 31% -64.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -47% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -24% · $-wt -47% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -52% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$192 vs −$263 · ×0.73 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.33 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$2,305
Realized−$3,495
Unrealized−$23
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses9 / 20
Est. fees paid−$135
Open positions4
Markets (closed)29 / 33
History coverage7d
Avg bet$307
Trades / day6.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 29 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Germany 42¢ 42¢ $1,000 $988 −$12 (-1%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Yes 58¢ 57¢ $700 $694 −$6 (-1%)
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Over 62¢ 62¢ $328 $326 −$3 (-1%)
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Over 59¢ 58¢ $300 $297 −$3 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 17 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $374 −$43 -12%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $203 +$161 +79%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $102 +$103 +101%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 Jun 19 $203 −$200 -99%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $203 −$200 -98%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 19 $102 −$100 -98%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $203 +$148 +73%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $366 −$360 -98%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $102 −$100 -98%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $203 +$241 +119%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $406 −$400 -99%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $50 +$108 +216%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $304 −$300 -99%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $305 +$320 +105%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $202 +$131 +65%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $354 +$229 +65%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 16 $252 −$249 -99%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $253 −$250 -99%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $202 −$4 -2%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 16 $102 −$100 -98%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $92 +$282 +307%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $997 −$984 -99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $508 −$500 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $496 −$488 -98%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $699 −$489 -70%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $98 −$98 -100%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $198 −$195 -99%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $101 −$100 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 62¢ $332 1h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 42¢ $331 1h
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Germany 42¢ $712 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $506 1h
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Germany 42¢ $305 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $203 1h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 59¢ $304 2h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 54¢ $203 25h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 55¢ $203 25h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 43¢ $203 25h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 49¢ $102 25h
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $102 25h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 45¢ $163 43h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 57¢ $203 44h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $102 44h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 45¢ $203 44h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 45¢ $203 3d
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 51¢ $203 3d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 53¢ $304 3d
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 51¢ $203 3d
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 60¢ $304 3d
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 31¢ $50 3d
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Algeria 58¢ $252 3d
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 60¢ $51 3d
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY Senegal 59¢ $51 3d
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY Senegal 59¢ $202 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 66¢ $198 3d
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $305 4d
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $102 4d
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 60¢ $202 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,305.14 · official $2,305.14 (match) · 57 history records