Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T05:37:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AE 0xaec7…c222 crypto 758 markets active 0h ago coverage 78d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 77d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$2,832 (-10%) realized −$2,807 · open −$25
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate59%442W / 311L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$36per market
Trades / day36.9pace
Fees−$50est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$322
7 days+$196
14 days+$296
30 days−$315
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 93% −$2,594
sports 5% +$253
other 3% −$108
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-16.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 41 +4.7% -5.2% 49% 46% -0.2%
≤30d 152 -6.9% -15.8% 49% 41% -13.1%
≤90d 753 -7.8% -16.6% 59% 47% -17.7%
all 753 -7.8% -16.6% 59% 47% -17.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover36.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -16.6% 47% -17.7%
10% ← realistic here -24.6% 35% -25.6%
15% -31.9% 26% -32.8%
20% -38.5% 19% -39.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$24 · ×0.47 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.67 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

78d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$2,807
Unrealized−$25
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses442 / 311
Est. fees paid−$50
Open positions1
Markets (closed)753 / 758
History coverage78d ⚠
Avg bet$36
Trades / day36.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 753 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 0.5 Under 8¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 36 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $47 +$59 +125%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $32 +$17 +54%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $56 −$6 -11%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $21 −$15 -71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 17 $13 −$12 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 17 $80 +$50 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 17 $21 +$38 +181%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 17 $60 −$27 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 17 $91 +$55 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 17 $95 +$70 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 17 $44 −$42 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 17 $26 −$24 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 17 $40 +$8 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 17 $44 −$5 -11%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 AND Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 AND Ira Jun 17 $38 +$186 +488%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 16 $16 −$10 -62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 16 $79 −$75 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 16 $53 +$5 +9%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $142 −$13 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 16 $16 −$15 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 16 $34 −$32 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 16 $36 +$18 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 16 $47 −$13 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 16 $41 +$22 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 16 $38 +$24 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 16 $65 +$54 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 16 $73 +$13 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 15 $72 −$69 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 15 $53 −$50 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 15 $36 −$10 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 14 $48 +$24 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 14 $55 +$20 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 14 $26 −$9 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 14 $35 +$19 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 14 $35 +$10 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 14 $81 +$14 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 14 $51 −$48 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 14 $31 +$32 +103%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 14 $28 −$27 -97%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $124 −$33 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 07 $121 −$38 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 07 $46 +$19 +41%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $38 −$20 -53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 07 $21 +$5 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 07 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 07 $67 +$14 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 07 $35 −$33 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 07 $47 +$28 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 07 $26 +$21 +80%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? SELL Yes 44¢ $106 7m
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 1.5 SELL Under 21¢ $49 24m
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 11¢ $6 59m
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 14¢ $50 1h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 3¢ $6 1h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 15¢ $56 1h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 13¢ $32 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Up 18¢ $13 1h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 8¢ $26 1h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 10¢ $21 1h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $41 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET SELL Up 77¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET SELL Up 52¢ $99 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $39 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET SELL Up 61¢ $59 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $21 1h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 AND Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY 32¢ $57 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET SELL Down 2¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Down 5¢ $12 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET SELL Down 13¢ $29 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Down 11¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Down 15¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Down 21¢ $13 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET SELL Up 66¢ $57 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET SELL Down 36¢ $34 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $28 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.15 · official $56.15 · 3500 history records