Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T22:46:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
AE 0xaec6…33f2 world 54 markets active 2h ago coverage 473d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$6,879 (+6%) realized +$6,239 · open +$640
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate63%32W / 19L
Whale WR85%big bets
Drawdown91%max
Avg bet$2,268per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$9,533now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$2,305
14 days+$2,305
30 days+$2,750
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 38% +$3,240
crypto 26% +$1,115
other 14% −$2,372
tech 11% +$4,499
politics 10% +$20
finance 1% +$376
economics 1% −$19
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-11.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +9.4% -1.0% 50% 50% +15.2%
≤30d 4 +11.2% +0.6% 75% 50% +4.4%
≤90d 7 +13.4% +2.6% 86% 57% +3.8%
all 51 -2.5% -11.8% 63% 45% -4.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~10%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.8% 45% -4.5%
10% ← realistic here -20.3% 35% -13.7%
15% -28.0% 18% -22.0%
20% -35.0% 16% -29.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +15% too few recent
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +6% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 85% (≥$3,319) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +4% → late -8% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$706 vs −$910 · ×0.78 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.38 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

473d coverage
Net worth$9,533
Realized+$6,239
Unrealized+$640
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses32 / 19
Whale WR (big bets)85%
Open positions3
Markets (closed)51 / 54
History coverage473d
Avg bet$2,268
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown91%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 51 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31? No 84¢ 86¢ $5,944 $6,041 +$97 (+2%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes 60¢ 72¢ $2,950 $3,492 +$543 (+18%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Yes 23¢ 4¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-81%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 16 $509 −$56 -11%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 16 $7,924 +$2,361 +30%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $7,893 +$69 +1%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 31 $1,501 +$376 +25%
Will Kanye West visit Israel by June 30? May 07 $5,672 +$895 +16%
Erdoğan out by December 31, 2026? Apr 02 $3,300 +$308 +9%
Nikita Bier out as Head of Product at X by June 30? Apr 02 $16 +$4 +24%
Will Trump talk to Friedrich Merz in January? Feb 02 $360 −$360 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 by December 31, 2026? Feb 02 $3,055 +$1,546 +51%
US x Iran nuclear talks resume by March 31? Jan 28 $47 +$5 +10%
Bitcoin below MicroStrategy average buy price in 2026? Jan 27 $13 +$5 +39%
Will the US next strike Iran in January 2026 (ET)? Jan 27 $23 +$3 +14%
Trump x Greenland deal signed by January 31? Jan 27 $51 $0 +0%
US government shutdown Saturday? Jan 27 $2,000 −$205 -10%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by October 31? Jan 26 $0 $0 -100%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by October 17? Jan 26 $880 −$880 -100%
Will Pump.fun launch a token by July 31? Jan 26 $3,319 −$3,319 -100%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by October 10? Jan 26 $5,374 −$5,374 -100%
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? Jan 23 $2,318 −$70 -3%
Tesla launches unsupervised full self driving (FSD) by March 31? Jan 23 $740 +$90 +12%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jan 20 $5,811 +$73 +1%
TikTok sale announced in 2025? Nov 25 $1,590 +$973 +61%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by August 31? Sep 01 $4,527 +$737 +16%
Will Bitcoin dip below $100k before 2026? Aug 24 $2,430 $0 +0%
Wyoming launches a USD stablecoin in 2025? Aug 20 $2,800 −$2,277 -81%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by July 15? Jul 11 $5,490 +$4,190 +76%
Pump.fun airdrop in Q3 2025? Jul 07 $450 +$15 +3%
Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin July 1-7? Jul 06 $5,870 +$710 +12%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium before August? Jul 06 $5,104 +$1,263 +25%
Will the Iranian regime fall before July? Jul 02 $4 +$4 +100%
Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July? Jun 24 $691 +$175 +25%
Will Pump.fun launch a token by June 30? Jun 20 $3,069 +$1,553 +51%
Will Pump.fun perform an airdrop by June 30? Jun 20 $378 +$241 +64%
Will Larry Ellison buy TikTok before July? Jun 19 $965 +$282 +29%
TikTok sale announced by June 19? Jun 11 $5,418 +$1,709 +32%
Trump ends taxes on tips before August? May 29 $915 −$481 -53%
Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 20-26? May 26 $432 +$14 +3%
US recession in 2025? May 09 $929 −$19 -2%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before June? May 09 $931 −$2 -0%
Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin April 15-21? Apr 18 $500 +$23 +5%
TikTok sale announced before May? Apr 17 $4,346 +$1,444 +33%
Will Trump say "Ceasefire" during Netanyahu events today? Apr 12 $86 −$86 -100%
Will Trump say "Tariff" 10+ times during Netanyahu events today? Apr 12 $129 −$129 -100%
Will GameStop purchase Bitcoin by April 1? Apr 01 $3,336 +$283 +8%
Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin March 25-31? Mar 31 $2,594 −$1,389 -54%
Yoon out as president of South Korea before April? Mar 26 $2,217 +$1,188 +54%
Will Trump say "trans" by March 28? Mar 25 $191 −$66 -35%
Will Kanye launch a coin in March? Mar 25 $3,203 +$1,103 +34%
Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin March 18-24? Mar 24 $1,647 −$1,647 -100%
Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin Feb Mar 11-17? Mar 16 $1,602 +$958 +60%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31? BUY No 84¢ $1,449 1h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31? BUY No 84¢ $2,751 1h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31? BUY No 86¢ $1,500 1h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31? BUY No 82¢ $23 1h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31? BUY No 82¢ $23 1h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31? BUY No 77¢ $167 1h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31? SELL No 78¢ $70 1h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31? BUY No 77¢ $6 1h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31? BUY No 77¢ $95 1h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 16¢ $223 3d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 16¢ $230 3d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $9 3d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $500 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 99¢ $8,150 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 99¢ $1 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 99¢ $2,133 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 99¢ $1 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 76¢ $509 5d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 76¢ $1,916 5d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 77¢ $1,000 5d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 81¢ $1,500 5d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 78¢ $1,000 5d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 74¢ $2,000 5d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 23¢ $3 7d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 23¢ $1 7d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 23¢ $0 7d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 23¢ $17 7d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 23¢ $2 7d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 23¢ $16 7d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 23¢ $103 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9,533.45 · official $9,568.77 (match) · 465 history records