Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T05:33:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
AE 0xaec2…30f9 other 130 markets active 0h ago coverage 132d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,938 (-2%) realized −$1,940 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate16%21W / 108L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$882per market
Trades / day2.5pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$632now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$4
14 days−$16
30 days−$28
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 41% −$1,276
politics 39% −$89
sports 11% −$573
culture 3% −$4
world 3% −$10
tech 2% −$2
crypto 1% +$2
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-14.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 22 -0.1% -9.6% 9% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 69 -0.1% -9.6% 7% 0% -9.6%
all 129 -5.5% -14.5% 16% 9% -11.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.5% 9% -11.1%
10% -22.7% 9% -19.6%
15% -30.2% 9% -27.4%
20% -37.0% 7% -34.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
43% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,127) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -11% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$21 vs −$22 · ×0.96 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.19 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

132d coverage
Net worth$632
Realized−$1,940
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)16%
Wins / losses21 / 108
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)129 / 130
History coverage132d
Avg bet$882
Trades / day2.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 129 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 100¢ 100¢ $630 $632 +$2 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? Jun 26 $482 −$1 -0%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? Jun 21 $480 −$1 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 21 $1,419 −$2 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 19 $484 −$1 -0%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 19 $485 −$1 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 14 $1,127 −$2 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 14 $871 −$1 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 13 $1,117 −$2 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 13 $3,324 −$4 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $1,024 −$1 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 12 $1,010 −$2 -0%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 07 $1,071 −$1 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 05 $1,420 −$2 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $2,212 −$2 -0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 05 $898 −$1 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 04 $1,092 −$2 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in May? Jun 04 $291 +$2 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in May? Jun 04 $378 +$1 +0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 31 $958 −$1 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 29 $1,695 −$2 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 29 $362 $0 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 27 $1,476 −$2 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 23 $560 −$1 -0%
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 22 $633 −$1 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 22 $1,030 −$2 -0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 22 $1,033 −$2 -0%
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 11 $1,039 −$1 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 07 $2,632 −$2 -0%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju May 07 $1,143 −$1 -0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 07 $1,141 −$1 -0%
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 06 $1,142 −$1 -0%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 06 $1,124 −$2 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 05 $3,128 −$3 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 05 $1,523 −$2 -0%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on April May 01 $199 $0 +0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 30 $1,175 −$1 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 Apr 29 $755 −$1 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 28 $893 −$1 -0%
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 27 $829 −$1 -0%
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 22 $1,843 −$2 -0%
Will Solana dip to $40 in April? Apr 21 $299 −$1 -0%
Will DeepSeek have the #1 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Con Apr 21 $309 −$1 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 20 $5,918 −$6 -0%
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026? Apr 19 $1,012 −$1 -0%
Will Park Ju-min win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 19 $1,023 −$1 -0%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? Apr 18 $2,163 −$2 -0%
Will the Phoenix Suns win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 18 $1,079 −$9 -1%
Will Hong Ihk-pyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 17 $1,739 −$2 -0%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 15 $1,805 −$2 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 14 $754 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $482 0m
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $482 1h
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $479 4d
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $480 4d
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $362 5d
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $363 5d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $484 6d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $484 6d
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $485 7d
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $485 7d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $630 9d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,125 11d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,127 11d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $869 11d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $871 12d
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,115 12d
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,117 12d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $890 13d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $891 13d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $1,023 13d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $1,024 13d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,009 13d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,010 14d
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $1,069 18d
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,071 18d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $804 20d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $805 20d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $808 20d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $809 20d
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $896 21d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $632.32 · official $632.32 (match) · 418 history records