Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T05:51:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AE 0xaec2…13f7 crypto 160 markets active 0h ago coverage 65d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$425 (-11%) realized −$425 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate34%55W / 105L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day3.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$266
7 days−$257
14 days−$310
30 days−$391
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$765
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-19.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -36.4% -42.4% 38% 38% -69.5%
≤30d 58 -11.5% -20.0% 52% 48% -37.1%
≤90d 160 -11.2% -19.6% 34% 32% -28.0%
all 160 -11.2% -19.6% 34% 32% -28.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.6% 32% -28.0%
10% -27.3% 31% -34.9%
15% -34.4% 27% -41.2%
20% -40.8% 24% -47.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -20% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -19% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$31 vs −$23 · ×1.31 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.69 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

65d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$425
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses55 / 105
Open positions0
Markets (closed)160 / 160
History coverage65d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day3.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 160 Trades
no open positions (91 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 24 $97 −$97 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 24 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 24 $66 −$63 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 24 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 24 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 24 $26 +$20 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 23 $26 +$25 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 18 $25 +$8 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 11 $3 +$10 +326%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 11 $2 +$1 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 11 $27 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 11 $30 −$29 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 11 $25 −$25 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 11 $26 +$9 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 11 $25 +$6 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 09 $62 +$48 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 09 $40 +$22 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 09 $33 +$6 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 09 $26 +$7 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 09 $11 +$8 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 09 $11 +$7 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 09 $10 −$10 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 09 $10 +$3 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 06 $26 +$22 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 06 $26 +$11 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 06 $25 +$8 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET May 26 $16 −$15 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET May 26 $6 −$6 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET May 26 $6 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET May 26 $6 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET May 26 $2 +$1 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET May 26 $6 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET May 26 $6 +$3 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET May 26 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET May 26 $5 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET May 26 $5 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET May 25 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET May 25 $13 +$7 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET May 25 $29 −$28 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET May 25 $28 +$14 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET May 25 $13 −$12 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET May 25 $2 +$7 +308%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET May 25 $31 −$30 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET May 25 $34 −$33 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET May 25 $27 −$26 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET May 25 $34 +$28 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET May 25 $28 −$27 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET May 25 $21 −$20 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET May 25 $54 −$52 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET May 25 $21 −$20 -95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $97 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $100 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $66 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET SELL Up 100¢ $51 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $26 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $25 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $13 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Up 22¢ $3 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $2 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 13¢ $27 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $30 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $25 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $35 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $26 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $25 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $62 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $40 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $33 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $26 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $20 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $11 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $11 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $10 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $13 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $10 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $48 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $26 17d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 273 history records