Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T15:27:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AE 0xaec2…ca85 crypto 221 markets active 5d ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$4 (+1%) realized +$4 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate88%194W / 27L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day45.8pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-11.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 221 -1.6% -11.0% 88% 26% -9.9%
≤90d 221 -1.6% -11.0% 88% 26% -9.9%
all 221 -1.6% -11.0% 88% 26% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover45.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.0% 26% -9.9%
10% ← realistic here -19.5% 6% -18.5%
15% -27.3% 1% -26.4%
20% -34.4% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
66% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.13 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.95 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)88%
Wins / losses194 / 27
Open positions0
Markets (closed)221 / 221
History coverage6d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day45.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 221 Trades
no open positions (19 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$4 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 10 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 10 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 10 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 10 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 10 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 10 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 10 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 10 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 10 $5 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 10 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 10 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 10 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 10 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 10 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 10 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 10 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 10 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 10 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 10 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 10 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 10 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 10 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 10 $5 −$3 -71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 10 $4 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 10 $9 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +16%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $5 5d
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET SELL Down 96¢ $5 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $5 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $0 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET SELL Down 96¢ $5 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $5 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET SELL Up 96¢ $5 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $5 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $5 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $5 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET SELL Up 97¢ $5 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $5 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET SELL Down 91¢ $5 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $5 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $5 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $5 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET SELL Up 77¢ $5 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $5 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET SELL Up 85¢ $5 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $5 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET SELL Up 95¢ $5 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $5 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $5 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $5 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $2 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $1 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $2 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $5 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 447 history records