Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T03:47:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
AE 0xaec2…cb66 other 148 markets active 2h ago coverage 359d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable P/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$2,100 (-6%) realized −$2,108 · open +$8
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate45%65W / 78L
Whale WR48%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$249per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit57%portable
Net worth$53now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 359d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 32% −$1,027
other 31% −$2,822
world 24% +$284
culture 8% −$2,233
politics 3% +$1,931
tech 1% −$192
crypto 0% −$85
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-13.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 32 -16.0% -24.0% 41% 41% -19.4%
≤30d 57 -3.1% -12.3% 42% 42% -17.9%
≤90d 57 -3.1% -12.3% 42% 42% -17.9%
all 143 -4.2% -13.3% 45% 44% -20.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.3% 44% -20.6%
10% -21.6% 40% -28.2%
15% -29.2% 34% -35.1%
20% -36.1% 27% -41.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 48% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -6% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$157 vs −$184 · ×0.85 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.71 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

359d coverage
Net worth$53
Realized−$2,108
Unrealized+$8
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses65 / 78
Whale WR (big bets)48%
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions2
Markets (closed)143 / 148
History coverage359d
Avg bet$249
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit57%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 143 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25? No 66¢ 86¢ $35 $46 +$11 (+31%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $10 $7 −$3 (-31%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 62 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $30 +$22 +73%
Scotland vs. Brazil: Both Teams to Score Jun 24 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $20 −$20 -98%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $21 −$20 -97%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $20 +$9 +43%
Harry Kane: 3+ goals Jun 23 $5 −$5 -97%
Harry Kane: 2+ goals Jun 23 $10 −$10 -98%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 3+ goals Jun 23 $10 −$10 -97%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ goals Jun 23 $10 +$19 +188%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 6.5 Jun 23 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 Uzbekistan? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 3 Egypt? Jun 22 $5 +$15 +291%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $20 +$12 +60%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 22 $10 +$12 +118%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -97%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $25 +$44 +174%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Belgium O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $30 +$13 +42%
Japan to win the second half? Jun 21 $20 +$14 +67%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $20 +$10 +48%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $20 +$15 +73%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $41 +$12 +29%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $23 −$23 -98%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $21 −$9 -44%
Brazil to win the second half? Jun 20 $30 −$30 -99%
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti? Jun 20 $10 −$4 -43%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $20 +$14 +67%
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $20 −$20 -98%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $10 +$11 +105%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $30 +$10 +32%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $10 +$9 +93%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $10 +$22 +216%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $10 +$7 +64%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $20 −$1 -4%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $10 +$14 +134%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Tunisia O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $5 +$12 +234%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 +$44 +431%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $20 +$6 +28%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 66¢ $35 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 39¢ $20 4h
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 AND Japan vs. Sweden: 1st Half O/U 1.5 AND W BUY 18¢ $10 4h
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 2.5 AND Ecuador vs. Germany: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY 37¢ $10 7h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 57¢ $30 26h
Scotland vs. Brazil: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 46¢ $20 29h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 30¢ $20 35h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 9¢ $21 2d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 100¢ $29 2d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 69¢ $20 2d
Harry Kane: 3+ goals BUY Yes 12¢ $5 2d
Harry Kane: 2+ goals BUY Yes 32¢ $10 2d
Cristiano Ronaldo: 3+ goals BUY Yes 11¢ $10 2d
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 18¢ $10 2d
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 Uzbekistan? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 2d
Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ goals BUY Yes 34¢ $10 2d
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 3 Egypt? SELL Yes 100¢ $20 4d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 99¢ $32 4d
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $0 4d
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 3 Egypt? BUY Yes 25¢ $5 4d
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $22 4d
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 45¢ $10 4d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 61¢ $20 4d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 4d
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $70 4d
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 35¢ $15 4d
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 37¢ $10 4d
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? AND Will Belgium win on 2026 BUY 5¢ $10 4d
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Belgium O/U 1.5 BUY Over 65¢ $20 4d
Japan to win the second half? BUY Yes 59¢ $20 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $52.82 · official $53.88 · 441 history records