Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T07:37:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
AE 0xaebf…4e6a sports 15 markets active 1h ago coverage 6d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$480 (+25%) realized +$473 · open +$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +28% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +11% what you keep after slip
Net edge+11%after slip
Net WR79%break-even
Win rate79%11W / 3L
Drawdown56%max
Avg bet$127per market
Trades / day5.7pace
Fees−$22est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$113now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$476
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +79%
net ROI/market (all)+15.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 +27.7% +15.5% 79% 79% +14.1%
≤30d 14 +27.7% +15.5% 79% 79% +14.1%
≤90d 14 +27.7% +15.5% 79% 79% +14.1%
all 14 +27.7% +15.5% 79% 79% +14.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +15.5% 79% +14.1%
10% +4.4% 71% +3.2%
15% -5.6% 71% -6.8%
20% -14.9% 50% -15.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 36% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +26% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +28% · $-wt +26% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late +51% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$78 vs −$128 · ×0.61 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.23 per $1 lost it wins $2.23
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$113
Realized+$473
Unrealized+$7
Win rate (resolved)79%
Wins / losses11 / 3
Est. fees paid−$22
Open positions1
Markets (closed)14 / 15
History coverage6d
Avg bet$127
Trades / day5.7
Drawdown56%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 14 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: ReThink vs roamsfiest (BO3) - Svenska CS-Ligan Group A ReThink 53¢ 56¢ $106 $113 +$7 (+7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $77 −$76 -98%
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs CYBERSHOKE Esports (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episo Jun 20 $132 +$68 +51%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $121 +$89 +73%
Counter-Strike: WW Team vs CYBERSHOKE Esports (BO3) - Stake Ranked Epi Jun 19 $56 +$51 +90%
Game Handicap: Grind (-1.5) vs Mentality Monster (+1.5) Jun 19 $168 +$157 +94%
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Academy vs BakS eSports (BO3) - ESEA Euro Jun 18 $38 +$40 +104%
Map Handicap: FOKUS (-1.5) vs Noir Verse (+1.5) Jun 18 $312 +$150 +48%
Counter-Strike: Ground Zero vs Rooster - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $199 −$199 -100%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger (BO3) - Asia Masters La Jun 18 $108 −$108 -100%
Dota 2: Game Master vs Grey Trac - Game 2 Winner Jun 16 $63 +$25 +40%
Dota 2: Game Master vs Grey Trac - Game 1 Winner Jun 16 $43 +$9 +22%
Map Handicap: RSTR (-1.5) vs DXA Esports (+1.5) Jun 15 $112 +$74 +67%
Counter-Strike: Rooster vs DXA Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $126 +$54 +42%
Map Handicap: GZ (-1.5) vs MARKandLARRY (+1.5) Jun 15 $243 +$136 +56%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: ReThink vs roamsfiest (BO3) - Svenska CS-Ligan Group A BUY ReThink 53¢ $107 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Spirit 38¢ $77 13h
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs CYBERSHOKE Esports (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episo BUY FOKUS 66¢ $111 22h
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs CYBERSHOKE Esports (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episo BUY FOKUS 66¢ $22 22h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 57¢ $121 40h
Counter-Strike: WW Team vs CYBERSHOKE Esports (BO3) - Stake Ranked Epi BUY CYBERSHOKE Esports 52¢ $56 41h
Game Handicap: Grind (-1.5) vs Mentality Monster (+1.5) BUY Grind Back 51¢ $52 2d
Game Handicap: Grind (-1.5) vs Mentality Monster (+1.5) BUY Grind Back 51¢ $52 2d
Game Handicap: Grind (-1.5) vs Mentality Monster (+1.5) BUY Grind Back 51¢ $52 2d
Game Handicap: Grind (-1.5) vs Mentality Monster (+1.5) BUY Grind Back 50¢ $13 2d
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Academy vs BakS eSports (BO3) - ESEA Euro BUY BakS eSports 49¢ $15 2d
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Academy vs BakS eSports (BO3) - ESEA Euro BUY BakS eSports 49¢ $23 2d
Counter-Strike: Ground Zero vs Rooster - Map 2 Winner BUY Ground Zero 66¢ $96 2d
Counter-Strike: Ground Zero vs Rooster - Map 2 Winner BUY Ground Zero 66¢ $3 2d
Counter-Strike: Ground Zero vs Rooster - Map 2 Winner BUY Ground Zero 67¢ $68 2d
Counter-Strike: Ground Zero vs Rooster - Map 2 Winner BUY Ground Zero 67¢ $32 2d
Map Handicap: FOKUS (-1.5) vs Noir Verse (+1.5) BUY FOKUS 67¢ $274 3d
Map Handicap: FOKUS (-1.5) vs Noir Verse (+1.5) BUY FOKUS 66¢ $38 3d
Dota 2: Game Master vs Grey Trac - Game 1 Winner BUY Game Master 82¢ $30 4d
Dota 2: Game Master vs Grey Trac - Game 1 Winner BUY Game Master 82¢ $13 4d
Dota 2: Game Master vs Grey Trac - Game 2 Winner BUY Game Master 71¢ $63 4d
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger (BO3) - Asia Masters La BUY Saigon Warriors 50¢ $102 5d
Counter-Strike: Rooster vs DXA Esports - Map 1 Winner SELL Rooster 100¢ $180 5d
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger (BO3) - Asia Masters La BUY Saigon Warriors 66¢ $6 5d
Map Handicap: GZ (-1.5) vs MARKandLARRY (+1.5) SELL Ground Zero 100¢ $380 5d
Counter-Strike: Rooster vs DXA Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY Rooster 70¢ $57 5d
Counter-Strike: Rooster vs DXA Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY Rooster 70¢ $25 5d
Counter-Strike: Rooster vs DXA Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY Rooster 70¢ $26 5d
Counter-Strike: Rooster vs DXA Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY Rooster 70¢ $18 5d
Map Handicap: GZ (-1.5) vs MARKandLARRY (+1.5) BUY Ground Zero 64¢ $128 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $112.98 · official $113.00 (match) · 47 history records