Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T07:23:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
AE 0xaebf…d898 crypto 34 markets active 2h ago coverage 77d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$15 (-0%) realized −$14 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate94%31W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$287per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Kalshi-fit53%portable
Net worth$262now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days−$43
14 days−$41
30 days−$41
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 50% +$7
other 49% −$50
finance 2% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -7.1% -15.9% 50% 0% -16.4%
≤30d 5 -2.7% -11.9% 80% 0% -12.0%
≤90d 33 -0.3% -9.8% 94% 0% -9.9%
all 33 -0.3% -9.8% 94% 0% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.8% 0% -9.9%
10% -18.4% 0% -18.5%
15% -26.3% 0% -26.4%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$40 · ×0.03 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.53 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

77d coverage
Net worth$262
Realized−$14
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)94%
Wins / losses31 / 2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)33 / 34
History coverage77d
Avg bet$287
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit53%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 33 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 29? No 100¢ 99¢ $263 $262 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 28? Jun 28 $263 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? Jun 24 $306 −$44 -14%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? Jun 20 $305 +$1 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? Jun 17 $304 +$1 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $304 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $81,000 on May 21? May 22 $304 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 21 $303 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 20? May 20 $302 +$1 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 19 $298 +$4 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 16 to May 18, 2026? May 18 $294 +$4 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from May 14 to May 16, 2026? May 16 $290 +$3 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 15 $290 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 14? May 14 $290 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? May 13 $286 +$3 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 10? May 11 $286 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? May 09 $286 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 7? May 08 $285 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from May 4 to May 6, 2026? May 06 $285 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 5? May 05 $285 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from May 2 to May 4, 2026? May 04 $284 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 2? May 03 $284 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in April? May 01 $284 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from April 25 to April 27, 2026? Apr 26 $330 +$8 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from April 23 to April 25, 2026? Apr 25 $309 −$36 -12%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on April 24? Apr 24 $309 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on April 23? Apr 23 $309 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on April 22? Apr 22 $309 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on April 20? Apr 20 $308 +$1 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from April 16 to April 18, 2026? Apr 19 $307 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on April 16? Apr 18 $306 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on April 15? Apr 16 $306 $0 +0%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on April 13? Apr 15 $147 +$5 +3%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on April 13? Apr 13 $149 +$4 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 29? BUY No 100¢ $263 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 28? BUY No 100¢ $263 24h
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $26 4d
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $201 4d
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $7 4d
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $23 4d
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $6 4d
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $306 5d
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $305 9d
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $304 12d
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $304 20d
Will Bitcoin reach $81,000 on May 21? BUY No 100¢ $304 38d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $303 39d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 20? BUY Yes 100¢ $302 40d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $298 41d
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 16 to May 18, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $294 42d
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from May 14 to May 16, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $290 44d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $290 45d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 14? BUY Yes 100¢ $290 46d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $286 48d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 10? BUY No 100¢ $286 50d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $286 52d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 7? BUY Yes 100¢ $285 53d
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from May 4 to May 6, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $285 54d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 5? BUY Yes 100¢ $285 55d
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from May 2 to May 4, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $81 56d
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from May 2 to May 4, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $5 56d
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from May 2 to May 4, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $35 56d
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from May 2 to May 4, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $5 56d
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from May 2 to May 4, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $40 56d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $261.51 · official $261.51 (match) · 95 history records