Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T11:22:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AE 0xaebf…5018 world 86 markets active 1h ago coverage 534d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$10 (-0%) realized −$9 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate40%34W / 50L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$38per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$40now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$3
14 days−$2
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 44% −$1
other 18% +$2
sports 18% −$23
politics 14% +$3
economics 5% $0
crypto 1% $0
weather 0% +$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-10.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -0.8% -10.2% 30% 0% -10.5%
≤30d 30 +0.3% -9.2% 43% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 67 +0.6% -8.9% 40% 3% -9.5%
all 84 -1.0% -10.4% 40% 7% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.4% 7% -9.8%
10% -19.0% 5% -18.5%
15% -26.8% 5% -26.3%
20% -34.0% 4% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
82% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.53 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.72 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

534d coverage
Net worth$40
Realized−$9
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses34 / 50
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions2
Markets (closed)84 / 86
History coverage534d
Avg bet$38
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 84 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? No 88¢ 86¢ $40 $40 −$1 (-2%)
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Yes 26¢ 15¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-42%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 23 $20 $0 +0%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 23 $45 −$1 -1%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 21 $47 −$1 -2%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 21 $19 +$1 +3%
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? Jun 20 $7 $0 +0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $41 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 19 $22 −$1 -4%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $44 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 18 $40 −$2 -4%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 18 $10 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 15 $32 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $69 −$1 -2%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 13 $30 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $9 $0 +6%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 12 $41 +$2 +4%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $81 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 09 $35 $0 -1%
Iran leadership change by December 31? Jun 08 $9 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 06 $93 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 06 $98 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 05 $133 −$1 -1%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 05 $84 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 05 $42 +$1 +3%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 04 $41 −$1 -2%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 02 $93 +$1 +1%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 30 $44 +$2 +5%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 29 $131 −$2 -2%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? May 28 $38 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 26 $31 +$1 +4%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 25 $21 +$1 +3%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 24 $3 $0 +14%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? May 21 $36 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 14 $2 $0 +0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? May 14 $1 $0 +6%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 27 $148 $0 +0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $4 $0 +0%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 25 $36 $0 +0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 24 $40 $0 +0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 23 $1 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 23 $39 $0 +0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 22 $36 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 22 $72 $0 -0%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $78 $0 -0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $2 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 22 $40 $0 +0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 21 $36 −$1 -2%
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? Apr 20 $36 $0 -1%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 14 $45 $0 +1%
Will Celta win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa League? Apr 13 $36 $0 +0%
Will Liverpool win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 12 $27 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $40 1h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 14¢ $20 11h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 14¢ $20 15h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 20¢ $3 21h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 20¢ $3 22h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 80¢ $41 34h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 81¢ $41 37h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $38 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $38 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 74¢ $20 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 72¢ $19 3d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $9 3d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $3 3d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $7 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 27¢ $5 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 27¢ $4 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 27¢ $11 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 26¢ $3 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 26¢ $5 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 26¢ $10 4d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL Yes 16¢ $7 4d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY Yes 16¢ $0 4d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 4d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY Yes 16¢ $6 4d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 86¢ $41 4d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 86¢ $41 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL Yes 27¢ $19 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL Yes 27¢ $2 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $22 5d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $42 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $39.84 · official $39.79 (match) · 349 history records