Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T07:59:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

AE
0xaebf…e1ca
sports · 385 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
−$130,333 -15%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$131,648 · open +$1,315
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist
Net worth$29,223
Realized−$131,648
Unrealized+$1,315
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses143 / 236
Whale WR (big bets)42%
Est. fees paid−$13,081
Open positions5
Markets (closed)379 / 385
Avg bet$2,302
Trades / day90.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%
Chart Positions 5 History 379 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$23,575
7 days−$233
14 days+$17,421
30 days−$132,451
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Yes 43¢ 80¢ $14,948 $28,098 +$13,150 (+88%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $505 $502 −$3 (-1%)
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $417 $394 −$23 (-6%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $218 $217 −$1 (-0%)
Notts County FC vs. Salford City FC: Both Teams to Score Yes 50¢ 0¢ $11,821 $12 −$11,809 (-100%)
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Yes 38¢ 0¢ $4,556 $0 −$4,556 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $1,189 +$4,100 +345%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 11 $7,737 −$5,322 -69%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $809 +$1,019 +126%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $515 +$499 +97%
Greece vs. Italy: Both Teams to Score Jun 11 $308 −$308 -100%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs B8 (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 11 $352 −$352 -100%
Will Albania win on 2026-06-06? Jun 11 $168 −$168 -100%
China PR vs. Thailand: Both Teams to Score Jun 11 $1,090 −$1,090 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs MIBR (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 11 $399 −$399 -100%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 11 $1,261 −$1,261 -100%
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 11 $1,154 −$1,154 -100%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-06? Jun 11 $1,535 −$1,535 -100%
Georgia vs. Bahrain: Both Teams to Score Jun 11 $1,468 −$1,468 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 11 $1,636 −$67 -4%
Counter-Strike: paiN vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 11 $2,562 −$2,562 -100%
Counter-Strike: paiN vs BIG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 11 $2,521 −$2,521 -100%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) Jun 11 $1,667 −$1,667 -100%
Azerbaijan vs. Malta: Both Teams to Score Jun 11 $1,345 −$1,345 -100%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs BIG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 11 $3,112 −$3,112 -100%
New York Mets vs. San Diego Padres Jun 11 $2,105 −$2,105 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-06? Jun 11 $1,123 −$1,123 -100%
UD Las Palmas vs. Málaga CF: Both Teams to Score Jun 11 $6,306 −$6,306 -100%
Will Flavio Cobolli win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 11 $2,625 −$2,625 -100%
Spread: Algeria (-1.5) Jun 11 $585 +$705 +120%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 10 $623 +$326 +52%
Málaga CF vs. UD Las Palmas: Both Teams to Score Jun 10 $7,273 +$6,268 +86%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 10 $3,466 +$842 +24%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $10,186 +$7,224 +71%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $1,942 +$1,477 +76%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $941 +$885 +94%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $1,238 +$1,250 +101%
Counter-Strike: FlyQuest vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $13,878 +$11,446 +82%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs GamerLegion (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 06 $1,967 +$1,239 +63%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs 9z (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $667 +$843 +126%
Armenia vs. Kazakhstan: Both Teams to Score Jun 06 $539 +$1,488 +276%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs FlyQuest (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $1,487 +$1,042 +70%
Hungary vs. Finland: Both Teams to Score Jun 05 $1,827 +$2,338 +128%
Map Handicap: BIG (-1.5) vs NRG (+1.5) Jun 05 $1,667 +$1,268 +76%
San Diego Padres vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 05 $189 −$189 -100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-04? Jun 05 $1,916 +$2,134 +111%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs Ursa (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Group Stag Jun 05 $253 −$253 -100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 05 $1,015 −$1,015 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Berrettini vs Matteo Arnaldi Jun 05 $3,208 −$2,031 -63%
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs FlyQuest (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 05 $1,718 −$1,718 -100%
Map Handicap: TL (-1.5) vs FlyQuest (+1.5) Jun 05 $2,860 −$2,860 -100%
Will Slovenia win on 2026-06-04? Jun 05 $5,039 −$932 -18%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 05 $1,137 −$1,137 -100%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 05 $5,079 +$3,120 +61%
Map Handicap: MIBR (-1.5) vs Lynn Vision (+1.5) Jun 04 $538 +$874 +162%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 04 $564 +$580 +103%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 85% −$99,635
other 15% −$29,562
crypto 0% −$1,137
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $224 2h
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $191 2h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $233 2h
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 22¢ $28 5h
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 22¢ $1,161 5h
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 22¢ $0 5h
Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? BUY Yes 58¢ $420 10h
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 28¢ $1,281 11h
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 29¢ $856 12h
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 30¢ $2 12h
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 30¢ $100 12h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Team Falcons 100¢ $1,526 13h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Team Falcons 60¢ $302 14h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Team Falcons 39¢ $809 15h
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 AND Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY 54¢ $963 17h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $1,014 20h
Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? BUY Yes 58¢ $1,011 26h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $95 26h
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 38¢ $394 26h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $515 26h
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $48 27h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $191 27h
Spread: Algeria (-1.5) BUY Algeria 44¢ $3 34h
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 38¢ $1,065 34h
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 38¢ $204 35h
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 38¢ $306 35h
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 38¢ $1,048 35h
Málaga CF vs. UD Las Palmas: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $13,536 35h
Spread: Algeria (-1.5) BUY Algeria 45¢ $375 35h
Spread: Algeria (-1.5) BUY Algeria 45¢ $6 35h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-14.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 47 -9.8% -18.4% 40% 40% -9.1%
≤30d 296 -5.4% -14.4% 36% 36% -25.0%
≤90d 379 -6.0% -14.9% 38% 37% -23.4%
all 379 -6.0% -14.9% 38% 37% -23.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover90.0 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.9% 37% -23.4%
10% -23.1% 37% -30.7%
15% ← realistic here -30.5% 36% -37.4%
20% -37.3% 36% -43.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $29,223.47 · official $29,223.47 (match) · 3500 history records