Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T02:48:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
AE 0xaebc…fb65 other 94 markets active 1h ago coverage 144d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$15,729 (-6%) realized −$15,779 · open +$50
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR56%break-even
Win rate60%56W / 37L
Whale WR62%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2,613per market
Trades / day3.9pace
Fees−$66est.
Kalshi-fit27%portable
Net worth$146now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,194
7 days+$932
14 days−$347
30 days−$1,339
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 77% −$8,821
sports 16% +$604
crypto 4% −$7,687
world 3% +$42
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)-14.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +15.3% +4.3% 64% 64% +2.2%
≤30d 21 -16.6% -24.5% 48% 48% -18.9%
≤90d 45 -1.8% -11.2% 62% 62% +4.1%
all 93 -5.6% -14.6% 60% 56% -15.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.9 tr/day
realistic slip~12%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.6% 56% -15.2%
10% ← realistic here -22.8% 47% -23.3%
15% -30.2% 30% -30.7%
20% -37.1% 20% -37.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +14% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 62% (≥$1,599) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -13% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$818 vs −$1,668 · ×0.49 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.74 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

144d coverage
Net worth$146
Realized−$15,779
Unrealized+$50
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses56 / 37
Whale WR (big bets)62%
Est. fees paid−$66
Open positions1
Markets (closed)93 / 94
History coverage144d
Avg bet$2,613
Trades / day3.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit27%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 93 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ $96 $146 +$50 (+52%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 21 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $407 +$351 +86%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $2,110 +$1,043 +49%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $202 −$200 -99%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $1,010 −$476 -47%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $203 +$117 +58%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $153 +$274 +178%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $506 +$214 +42%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $102 −$83 -81%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $1,316 −$940 -71%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $504 +$111 +22%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $978 +$521 +53%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $2,092 −$1,252 -60%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $50 −$49 -99%
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Jun 15 $196 +$51 +26%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $29 −$29 -100%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $201 −$197 -98%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $716 −$576 -80%
Roland Garros ATP: Thiago Agustin Tirante vs Pablo Carreno Busta May 29 $177 −$175 -99%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 29 $7 +$2 +37%
Will CA Boca Juniors win on 2026-05-28? May 29 $253 −$213 -84%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 27 $258 +$167 +64%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 24 $540 +$450 +83%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $1,003 +$795 +79%
Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-05-24? May 23 $249 −$245 -98%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $500 −$354 -71%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-16? May 16 $304 +$96 +32%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-17? May 15 $143 −$140 -98%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-13? May 13 $143 +$70 +49%
Thunder vs. Lakers May 12 $368 +$62 +17%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC vs. Leeds United FC end in a draw? May 11 $191 +$25 +13%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $1,045 +$335 +32%
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) May 10 $765 −$760 -99%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-09? May 09 $4,099 +$1,166 +28%
Knicks vs. 76ers May 09 $651 +$169 +26%
Will CA Boca Juniors win on 2026-04-28? Apr 28 $355 −$348 -98%
Will Olympique Lyonnais win on 2026-04-25? Apr 26 $640 +$349 +55%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-25? Apr 26 $1,475 +$994 +67%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-22? Apr 22 $2,032 +$595 +29%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-19? Apr 19 $1,525 +$822 +54%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-15? Apr 15 $882 −$633 -72%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-14? Apr 14 $1,130 +$1,019 +90%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-04-12? Apr 12 $1,192 +$440 +37%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-11? Apr 11 $2,384 +$313 +13%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-08? Apr 08 $1,015 +$333 +33%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-07? Apr 07 $1,092 +$773 +71%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-03-07? Mar 22 $3,859 +$425 +11%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-03-07? Mar 22 $698 +$305 +44%
Will Real Madrid CF vs. Getafe CF end in a draw? Mar 22 $1,907 −$173 -9%
Will FK Bodø/Glimt win on 2026-03-11? Mar 22 $507 +$793 +156%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-03-11? Mar 11 $899 −$899 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 95¢ $356 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 65¢ $402 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 40¢ $407 3h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 100¢ $3,153 7h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $1,514 13h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $202 32h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 37¢ $534 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 69¢ $505 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 67¢ $505 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 93¢ $320 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $203 2d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 69¢ $427 2d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 24¢ $153 3d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 84¢ $721 3d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 58¢ $506 3d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes $19 4d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 72¢ $357 4d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 73¢ $504 4d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 51¢ $304 4d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 50¢ $203 4d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 25¢ $102 4d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 90¢ $615 4d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $304 4d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 73¢ $504 5d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 62¢ $596 5d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $1,498 5d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 65¢ $493 6d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 64¢ $485 6d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca SELL Ilia Topuria 33¢ $841 7d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 53¢ $50 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $145.75 · official $145.75 (match) · 614 history records