Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T09:37:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AE 0xaebc…03bc world 58 markets active 1h ago coverage 368d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$18 (-1%) realized −$16 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate41%23W / 33L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$30per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$41now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days−$2
14 days−$2
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 68% −$2
other 25% −$22
politics 5% $0
crypto 1% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-8.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -0.7% -10.1% 44% 0% -10.0%
≤30d 31 -0.5% -10.0% 42% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 31 -0.5% -10.0% 42% 0% -9.6%
all 56 +0.8% -8.8% 41% 4% -10.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.8% 4% -10.5%
10% -17.6% 2% -19.1%
15% -25.5% 2% -26.9%
20% -32.8% 2% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 50% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
91% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$2 · ×0.29 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.39 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

368d coverage
Net worth$41
Realized−$16
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses23 / 33
Open positions2
Markets (closed)56 / 58
History coverage368d
Avg bet$30
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 56 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? No 53¢ 50¢ $42 $40 −$2 (-5%)
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? No 94¢ 94¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 24 $42 $0 +0%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 23 $39 +$1 +2%
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 23 $46 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 23 $45 $0 -0%
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? Jun 21 $41 $0 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 21 $22 $0 -2%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 20 $42 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $42 −$3 -8%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 17 $116 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 15 $44 +$1 +1%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 14 $32 +$1 +3%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 14 $43 $0 +1%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $56 $0 +1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $47 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $47 −$1 -1%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $43 −$1 -2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 10 $2 $0 -5%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 10 $48 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $44 $0 -0%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $44 +$1 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 09 $48 −$1 -1%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 09 $48 +$1 +2%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 08 $44 −$1 -1%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 08 $24 $0 -0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 07 $48 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 07 $32 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 06 $2 $0 -2%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $48 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 05 $48 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 04 $16 $0 +0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 04 $3 $0 -6%
Will Leeds United win on 2025-12-03? Jan 31 $23 −$23 -100%
Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-11-29? Nov 26 $26 $0 +0%
Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-11-30? Nov 26 $38 $0 +0%
Will Fulham win on 2025-12-02? Nov 25 $17 $0 +0%
Will Liverpool win on 2025-12-03? Nov 25 $22 $0 +0%
Will Chelsea win on 2025-11-30? Nov 25 $6 $0 +0%
Will Wolves win on 2025-12-03? Nov 25 $19 $0 +0%
Will Burnley FC win on 2025-12-03? Nov 25 $23 $0 +0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? Nov 19 $5 $0 +3%
Will Ethereum reach $5400 in October? Oct 24 $19 $0 +0%
Will Heather Humphreys win the Irish Presidential Election? Oct 24 $23 $0 +0%
Will Andrew Cuomo win second place in the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Oct 24 $15 $0 -0%
Will Trump pardon Sam Bankman-Fried in 2025? Oct 23 $4 $0 -2%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 World Series? Oct 12 $21 +$2 +12%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Jul 03 $3 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 225–239 times June 27–July 4? Jul 02 $20 +$1 +2%
Will Fluminense win the FIFA Club World Cup? Jul 02 $19 $0 +0%
Will the Atlanta Braves win the 2025 World Series? Jul 02 $1 $0 +0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2025 World Series? Jul 01 $21 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? BUY No 53¢ $42 1h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 68¢ $7 3h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 68¢ $3 3h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 68¢ $31 3h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 68¢ $42 7h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 48¢ $22 12h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 46¢ $17 14h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 46¢ $27 16h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 46¢ $12 16h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 86¢ $46 24h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 86¢ $46 26h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $45 31h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $45 33h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL No 84¢ $29 2d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL No 84¢ $13 2d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY No 83¢ $19 2d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY No 83¢ $22 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 47¢ $21 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 48¢ $11 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 48¢ $11 3d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $4 4d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $37 4d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $42 4d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 93¢ $16 4d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 93¢ $5 4d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 93¢ $5 4d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 93¢ $15 4d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $41 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 36¢ $39 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 39¢ $42 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $40.71 · official $41.20 (match) · 208 history records