Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T06:29:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AE 0xaeb9…8fe5 other 84 markets active 0h ago coverage 270d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$58 (+1%) realized +$58 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate36%30W / 54L
Drawdown18%max
Avg bet$75per market
Trades / day1.5pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$2
30 days−$12
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 45% +$68
world 27% −$11
sports 23% −$1
politics 3% +$1
crypto 1% +$1
economics 0% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-6.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -0.2% -9.7% 17% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 23 -0.8% -10.3% 30% 0% -10.1%
≤90d 30 -0.5% -10.0% 30% 0% -9.8%
all 84 +3.6% -6.3% 36% 4% -8.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.3% 4% -8.7%
10% -15.2% 1% -17.4%
15% -23.4% 1% -25.4%
20% -30.9% 1% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 76% · top 2 82% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
90% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +7% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$1 · ×3.75 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×4.02 per $1 lost it wins $4.02
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

270d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$58
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses30 / 54
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions0
Markets (closed)84 / 84
History coverage270d
Avg bet$75
Trades / day1.5
Drawdown18%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 84 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 20 $40 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 18 $80 −$1 -1%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 17 $55 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $78 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $59 $0 -0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $148 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $48 −$4 -8%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 08 $75 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 07 $105 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $157 +$3 +2%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 07 $91 $0 -0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 06 $85 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 05 $78 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 04 $212 −$7 -3%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 30 $13 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 30 $96 −$1 -1%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 29 $6 $0 +7%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 29 $8 −$1 -10%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 28 $87 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 27 $34 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? May 26 $100 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 24 $95 −$2 -2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 23 $21 $0 -2%
Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026? May 14 $925 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 23 $577 −$1 -0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 23 $14 $0 +0%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 23 $576 +$1 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 22 $48 +$1 +3%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 22 $15 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 22 $653 −$1 -0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Dec 18 $21 $0 -1%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 16 $8 $0 +4%
Will Burnley FC win on 2025-12-03? Dec 11 $52 +$5 +9%
Will Fulham win on 2025-12-02? Dec 11 $207 +$5 +2%
Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-11-30? Nov 26 $77 $0 +0%
Will Liverpool win on 2025-12-03? Nov 26 $28 $0 +0%
Will Leeds United win on 2025-12-03? Nov 25 $132 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-11-29? Nov 25 $127 $0 +0%
Will Chelsea win on 2025-11-30? Nov 25 $223 $0 -0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Nov 25 $37 $0 +0%
Will Newcastle win on 2025-12-02? Nov 25 $36 $0 +0%
Will Wolves win on 2025-12-03? Nov 25 $133 $0 +0%
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 Champions League? Nov 24 $99 $0 -0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Nov 24 $19 $0 +0%
Will Newcastle win on 2025-11-22? Nov 24 $22 +$58 +270%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Nov 15 $2 $0 +4%
Will Fulham win on 2025-11-22? Nov 15 $23 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $100k in October? Nov 14 $4 +$1 +11%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70k in October? Nov 14 $20 $0 +2%
Will Pam Bondi leave the Trump administration in 2025? Oct 22 $5 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 22¢ $32 28m
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 22¢ $9 28m
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 22¢ $40 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 77¢ $79 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 78¢ $15 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 78¢ $66 2d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 31¢ $55 2d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 31¢ $55 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $78 3d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $39 3d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $39 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 85¢ $59 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $59 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $30 6d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $30 6d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $34 6d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $34 6d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 22¢ $20 7d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 22¢ $13 7d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 22¢ $11 7d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 24¢ $23 7d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 24¢ $24 7d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $3 7d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $81 7d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $84 7d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 95¢ $51 12d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 95¢ $25 12d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 95¢ $75 12d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $3 12d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 405 history records