trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 2 | +0.5% | -9.0% | 50% | 0% | -9.2% |
| ≤30d | 7 | +0.1% | -9.4% | 29% | 0% | -9.5% |
| ≤90d | 7 | +0.1% | -9.4% | 29% | 0% | -9.5% |
| all | 26 | +0.6% | -9.0% | 54% | 8% | -9.9% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -9.0% | 8% | -9.9% |
| 10% | -17.7% | 4% | -18.5% |
| 15% | -25.7% | 0% | -26.4% |
| 20% | -32.9% | 0% | -33.6% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? | Yes | 90¢ | 90¢ | $27 | $27 | −$0 (-1%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | Jun 14 | $50 | $0 | +0% |
| US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? | Jun 14 | $27 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? | Jun 09 | $18 | $0 | +0% |
| Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? | Jun 06 | $31 | $0 | -1% |
| Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | Jun 05 | $32 | $0 | +0% |
| Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia | Jun 05 | $28 | $0 | +0% |
| Iran closes its airspace by June 30? | Jun 03 | $14 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July? | Dec 09 | $1 | $0 | +2% |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after June 2025 meeting? | Jun 19 | $19 | −$1 | -6% |
| Ethereum above $2,800 on June 17? | Jun 18 | $1 | $0 | +3% |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before June? | Jun 02 | $2 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Trump pardon CZ in his first 100 days? | Apr 26 | $12 | $0 | +0% |
| Will another coalition form the next German Government? | Apr 25 | $12 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Nikola Jokic win the 2024-25 NBA MVP? | Apr 24 | $12 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister? | Apr 23 | $14 | −$4 | -26% |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $79000 on Apr 25? | Apr 22 | $15 | $0 | +1% |
| Will the PPC win 0 seats in the next Canadian Election? | Apr 21 | $15 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Charles Leclerc be the 2025 Drivers Champion? | Apr 19 | $15 | $0 | +0% |
| Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days? | Apr 19 | $15 | $0 | -0% |
| Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? | Apr 03 | $1 | $0 | +24% |
| Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2025 World Series? | Apr 02 | $17 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the Minnesota Wild win the 2025 Stanley Cup? | Apr 02 | $18 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $78000 on Mar 28? | Mar 25 | $17 | $0 | +2% |
| Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the Eastern Conference? | Mar 24 | $18 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Alice Weidel be the next Chancellor of Germany? | Mar 22 | $18 | $0 | -0% |
| San Diego vs. Washington State | Mar 20 | $16 | +$2 | +11% |