Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T16:37:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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AE 0xaeb5…58e2 sports 922 markets active 0h ago coverage 144d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 144d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$62,113 (-22%) realized −$62,757 · open +$644
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate36%327W / 593L
Whale WR40%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$310per market
Trades / day19.4pace
Fees−$2,814est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$1,284now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 144d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 89% −$18,528
other 11% −$2,339
crypto 0% +$284
world 0% −$57
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-15.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 63 +14.8% +3.9% 40% 40% +5.3%
≤30d 122 -2.5% -11.8% 35% 35% -7.8%
≤90d 618 -6.6% -15.5% 35% 35% -16.1%
all 920 -6.7% -15.6% 36% 35% -16.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover19.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.6% 35% -16.3%
10% -23.7% 35% -24.3%
15% -31.0% 34% -31.6%
20% -37.8% 33% -38.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 40% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -4% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$406 vs −$261 · ×1.56 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

144d coverage
Net worth$1,284
Realized−$62,757
Unrealized+$644
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses327 / 593
Whale WR (big bets)40%
Est. fees paid−$2,814
Open positions2
Markets (closed)920 / 922
History coverage144d ⚠
Avg bet$310
Trades / day19.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 920 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Felix Auger-Aliassime 35¢ 100¢ $350 $1,000 +$650 (+186%)
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Portugal 29¢ 28¢ $290 $285 −$5 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Halle Open: Hubert Hurkacz vs Daniel Altmaier Jun 17 $296 −$41 -14%
Nottingham Open: Yulia Starodubtseva vs Emma Navarro Jun 17 $316 −$310 -98%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $397 +$603 +152%
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? Jun 17 $3 $0 +11%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $377 +$623 +165%
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 1 Norway? Jun 16 $71 −$69 -97%
Exact Score: France 1 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $113 −$110 -97%
Halle Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Sho Shimabukuro Jun 16 $318 −$318 -100%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $24 −$24 -100%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $133 −$133 -100%
Nottingham Open: Zeynep Sonmez vs Leylah Fernandez Jun 16 $311 −$311 -100%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 16 $656 −$656 -100%
Halle Open: Andrey Rublev vs Hubert Hurkacz Jun 16 $318 −$318 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $541 +$1,459 +270%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $144 −$37 -25%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $310 +$290 +93%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $450 −$450 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 15 $591 −$591 -100%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta Jun 15 $92 −$92 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $205 −$205 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $479 −$479 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $316 +$284 +90%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $527 +$473 +90%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $266 −$31 -12%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $61 −$61 -100%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $360 +$640 +178%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $387 −$387 -100%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $508 −$508 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner Jun 14 $367 −$367 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $437 +$563 +129%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 14 $144 −$27 -19%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $397 +$602 +152%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $417 +$582 +139%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $111 −$111 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $238 −$238 -100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $70 −$70 -100%
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Phoenix Mercury Jun 14 $316 +$284 +90%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $111 +$489 +442%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $306 −$72 -23%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $370 −$370 -100%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 13 $286 −$286 -100%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $637 −$274 -43%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $316 −$316 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $181 −$181 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $417 +$583 +140%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $235 −$235 -100%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 13 $162 −$139 -86%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $591 +$585 +99%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $170 +$829 +488%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $215 +$784 +365%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY Portugal 29¢ $296 0m
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime BUY Felix Auger-Aliassime 35¢ $357 1h
Halle Open: Hubert Hurkacz vs Daniel Altmaier SELL Daniel Altmaier 26¢ $255 1h
Halle Open: Hubert Hurkacz vs Daniel Altmaier BUY Daniel Altmaier 29¢ $296 1h
Nottingham Open: Yulia Starodubtseva vs Emma Navarro BUY Yulia Starodubtseva 31¢ $316 4h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 39¢ $397 10h
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? SELL Yes 34¢ $3 11h
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? BUY Yes 30¢ $3 11h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 37¢ $377 16h
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 1 Norway? BUY Yes 7¢ $71 24h
Exact Score: France 1 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 11¢ $113 24h
Nottingham Open: Zeynep Sonmez vs Leylah Fernandez BUY Leylah Fernandez 31¢ $9 27h
Nottingham Open: Zeynep Sonmez vs Leylah Fernandez BUY Leylah Fernandez 31¢ $194 27h
Nottingham Open: Zeynep Sonmez vs Leylah Fernandez BUY Leylah Fernandez 31¢ $16 27h
Nottingham Open: Zeynep Sonmez vs Leylah Fernandez BUY Leylah Fernandez 31¢ $29 27h
Nottingham Open: Zeynep Sonmez vs Leylah Fernandez BUY Leylah Fernandez 31¢ $64 27h
Halle Open: Andrey Rublev vs Hubert Hurkacz BUY Andrey Rublev 4¢ $41 27h
Halle Open: Andrey Rublev vs Hubert Hurkacz BUY Andrey Rublev 7¢ $72 27h
Halle Open: Andrey Rublev vs Hubert Hurkacz BUY Andrey Rublev 20¢ $205 28h
Halle Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Sho Shimabukuro BUY Tallon Griekspoor 53¢ $315 28h
Halle Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Sho Shimabukuro BUY Tallon Griekspoor 53¢ $3 28h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 13¢ $133 45h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 17¢ $174 46h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 2¢ $24 46h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) SELL Spain 11¢ $107 47h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 14¢ $144 47h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 36¢ $367 47h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 28¢ $286 2d
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 61¢ $370 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $310 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,284.40 · official $1,284.50 (match) · 3500 history records