Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T07:15:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AE 0xaeb3…caf3 crypto 583 markets active 1h ago coverage 280d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,285 (-11%) realized −$1,256 · open −$29
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -25% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -35% what you keep after slip
Net edge-35%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate35%201W / 375L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day4.6pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$322now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$50
7 days−$25
14 days−$80
30 days−$84
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 70% −$1,200
other 21% −$180
world 4% −$109
politics 2% −$49
sports 2% −$110
culture 1% −$53
economics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-32.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 -48.6% -53.5% 32% 16% -16.8%
≤30d 37 -50.4% -55.2% 27% 16% -18.9%
≤90d 85 -39.8% -45.5% 32% 26% -29.4%
all 576 -24.9% -32.0% 35% 31% -25.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -32.0% 31% -25.3%
10% -38.5% 28% -32.5%
15% -44.5% 26% -39.0%
20% -49.9% 21% -45.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -22% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -25% · $-wt -18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -19% → late -30% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$10 · ×1.04 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.56 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

280d coverage
Net worth$322
Realized−$1,256
Unrealized−$29
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses201 / 375
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)576 / 583
History coverage280d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day4.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 576 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $321 $277 −$44 (-14%)
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $30 $45 +$15 (+50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 174 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 28 $25 −$24 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 28 $32 −$5 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 28 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $9 −$9 -100%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 26 $20 −$11 -53%
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 3 France? Jun 26 $4 −$4 -97%
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score Jun 26 $10 +$7 +71%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Saudi Arabia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA Worl Jun 26 $10 −$1 -6%
Belgium leading at halftime? Jun 25 $10 $0 +1%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Senegal advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 23 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 23 $1 +$1 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 23 $1 $0 +9%
Will Belgium advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 23 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Jordan 1 - 3 Algeria? Jun 23 $100 +$7 +7%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $81 +$44 +55%
Will Algeria advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 21 $9 −$9 -98%
Tunisia vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $10 −$9 -89%
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $100 +$6 +6%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND Jun 20 $5 −$4 -80%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $15 −$11 -69%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $119 +$77 +65%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $123 −$4 -3%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $9 −$1 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 02 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET May 31 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET May 31 $2 −$1 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET May 31 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET May 30 $1 +$1 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET May 30 $1 −$1 -96%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: Both Teams to Score May 30 $2 +$1 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET May 25 $1 +$1 +86%
Military action against Iran ends on April 10, 2026? Apr 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Military action against Iran ends on April 12, 2026? Apr 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Military action against Iran ends on April 11, 2026? Apr 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Military action against Iran ends on April 13, 2026? Apr 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Military action against Iran ends on April 14, 2026? Apr 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Military action against Iran ends on April 15, 2026? Apr 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Trump declare war on Iran by April 30, 2026? Apr 10 $10 +$2 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Apr 08 $10 +$7 +68%
Military action against Iran ends on April 26, 2026? Apr 08 $5 −$5 -100%
Military action against Iran ends on April 22, 2026? Apr 08 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Mar 31 $1 −$1 -95%
Will Toulouse FC win on 2026-04-03? Mar 31 $3 −$3 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET SELL Up 57¢ $24 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $1 1h
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $31 1h
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals AND Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY 33¢ $10 35h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL No 19¢ $10 35h
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 3 France? BUY Yes 3¢ $4 35h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY No 39¢ $20 35h
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 99¢ $17 35h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 35h
Will Saudi Arabia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA Worl SELL No 66¢ $9 35h
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 57¢ $10 3d
Belgium leading at halftime? SELL Yes 62¢ $10 3d
England vs. Ghana: Both Teams to Score AND Will Ghana win on 2026-06-2 BUY 5¢ $1 4d
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 39¢ $5 4d
Will Saudi Arabia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA Worl BUY No 69¢ $10 4d
Will Senegal advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY No 35¢ $10 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $1 4d
Belgium leading at halftime? BUY Yes 60¢ $10 5d
Will Belgium advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY No 9¢ $10 5d
Switzerland vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score AND Czechia vs. Mexico: Bo BUY 7¢ $3 5d
Morocco vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score AND Will Haiti win on 2026-06-2 BUY 5¢ $1 5d
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 5d
Exact Score: Jordan 1 - 3 Algeria? SELL No 100¢ $107 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $322.36 · official $322.36 (match) · 1630 history records