Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T11:14:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
AE 0xaeb1…d11e sports 52 markets active 2h ago coverage 106d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$511 (-9%) realized −$480 · open −$31
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate43%22W / 29L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$108per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$81est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$69now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$36
14 days−$490
30 days+$35
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 90% −$476
other 9% −$119
crypto 1% +$36
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-20.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +24.5% +12.6% 67% 33% +7.5%
≤30d 42 -1.0% -10.4% 48% 40% -8.8%
≤90d 51 -12.4% -20.7% 43% 37% -18.3%
all 51 -12.4% -20.7% 43% 37% -18.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.7% 37% -18.3%
10% -28.3% 37% -26.2%
15% -35.2% 37% -33.3%
20% -41.6% 33% -39.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -14% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$105 vs −$98 · ×1.07 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

106d coverage
Net worth$69
Realized−$480
Unrealized−$31
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses22 / 29
Est. fees paid−$81
Open positions1
Markets (closed)51 / 52
History coverage106d
Avg bet$108
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 51 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $100 $69 −$31 (-31%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 23 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: Kiwoom DRX vs LOS (BO1) - Cross Regional Group Stage Jun 26 $56 +$4 +8%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $86 −$4 -4%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $51 +$36 +70%
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 3 Winner Jun 15 $102 −$100 -98%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $102 −$100 -98%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $102 +$4 +4%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $133 −$130 -98%
Mexico leading at halftime? Jun 11 $102 +$116 +114%
Game Handicap: EWI (-1.5) vs HMBLE (+1.5) Jun 11 $102 +$136 +134%
LoL: Solary vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 1 Winner Jun 11 $102 −$100 -98%
Valorant: Global Esports vs XLG Gaming - Map 2 Winner Jun 10 $102 +$126 +124%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN - Map 2 Winner Jun 09 $102 −$100 -98%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $102 −$100 -98%
LoL: FURIA Esports vs LOS - Game 4 Winner Jun 06 $102 −$100 -98%
LoL: FURIA Esports vs LOS - Game 2 Winner Jun 06 $204 +$315 +155%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs NRG - Map 2 Winner Jun 06 $102 +$178 +174%
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Karmine Corp - Game 2 Winner Jun 06 $152 −$150 -98%
LoL: FURIA Esports vs LOS - Game 1 Winner Jun 06 $101 −$100 -99%
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Karmine Corp - Game 1 Winner Jun 06 $101 −$100 -99%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 06 $223 −$14 -6%
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs GAM Esports - Game 4 Winner Jun 06 $203 +$149 +74%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 06 $101 +$38 +38%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 06 $102 +$142 +139%
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs GAM Esports - Game 3 Winner Jun 06 $213 −$210 -99%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 06 $102 −$100 -98%
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 4 Winner Jun 03 $101 +$68 +67%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs GIANTX - Game 3 Winner Jun 01 $102 −$100 -98%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs GIANTX - Game 1 Winner Jun 01 $135 −$99 -73%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Team WE - Game 3 Winner Jun 01 $102 −$100 -98%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Shopify Rebellion - Game 2 Winner Jun 01 $101 +$2 +2%
LoL: Forsaken vs BOMBA Team - Game 3 Winner May 31 $101 +$79 +78%
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS - Game 2 Winner May 31 $101 +$85 +84%
LoL: Team Vitality vs GIANTX - Game 2 Winner May 31 $117 +$303 +258%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Top Esports - Game 4 Winner May 31 $101 −$100 -99%
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs Dplus KIA - Game 2 Winner May 31 $102 −$100 -98%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Top Esports - Game 2 Winner May 31 $101 +$71 +70%
Chet Holmgren: Points O/U 13.5 May 31 $101 +$91 +89%
LoL: FlyQuest vs Sentinels - Game 2 Winner May 30 $102 +$116 +114%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Natus Vincere - Game 3 Winner May 30 $102 +$166 +162%
LoL: Fluxo W7M vs LOS - Game 2 Winner May 30 $90 −$82 -91%
Valorant: Team Envy vs Sentinels - Map 2 Winner May 20 $4 −$4 -100%
LoL: Skillcamp Esport vs Ici Japon Corp. Esport (BO1) - LFL Regular Se Apr 23 $83 −$82 -99%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Team Falcons - Game 2 Winner Apr 23 $103 −$102 -100%
LoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Apr 23 $224 −$216 -96%
LoL: Barça eSports vs Karmine Corp Blue (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group A Apr 23 $81 −$81 -100%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs JD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Apr 23 $133 −$133 -100%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs Team Secret Whales - Game 1 Winner Apr 23 $24 −$24 -100%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Heroic - Game 2 Winner Apr 23 $59 +$26 +44%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: Kiwoom DRX vs LOS (BO1) - Cross Regional Group Stage SELL LOS 66¢ $60 1h
LoL: Kiwoom DRX vs LOS (BO1) - Cross Regional Group Stage BUY LOS 60¢ $56 1h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 28¢ $83 9h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 28¢ $86 10h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $51 5d
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 3 Winner BUY Solary 20¢ $102 10d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 55¢ $101 10d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $103 11d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 38¢ $102 11d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 25¢ $102 11d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner SELL T1 37¢ $98 12d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 36¢ $102 12d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 17¢ $31 12d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 29¢ $102 12d
Game Handicap: EWI (-1.5) vs HMBLE (+1.5) SELL E WIE EINFACH E-SPORTS 100¢ $238 14d
Mexico leading at halftime? BUY Yes 46¢ $102 14d
Game Handicap: EWI (-1.5) vs HMBLE (+1.5) BUY E WIE EINFACH E-SPORTS 42¢ $102 14d
LoL: Solary vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 1 Winner BUY Eintracht Spandau 34¢ $102 14d
Valorant: Global Esports vs XLG Gaming - Map 2 Winner SELL XLG Gaming 100¢ $227 15d
Valorant: Global Esports vs XLG Gaming - Map 2 Winner BUY XLG Gaming 44¢ $102 15d
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN - Map 2 Winner BUY paiN 47¢ $102 16d
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp - Game 1 Winner BUY G2 Esports 41¢ $102 18d
LoL: FURIA Esports vs LOS - Game 4 Winner BUY LOS 30¢ $102 19d
LoL: FURIA Esports vs LOS - Game 2 Winner SELL LOS 100¢ $519 19d
LoL: FURIA Esports vs LOS - Game 2 Winner BUY LOS 38¢ $102 19d
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs NRG - Map 2 Winner SELL NRG 100¢ $280 19d
LoL: FURIA Esports vs LOS - Game 2 Winner BUY LOS 39¢ $102 19d
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Karmine Corp - Game 2 Winner BUY Movistar KOI 32¢ $51 19d
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Karmine Corp - Game 2 Winner BUY Movistar KOI 55¢ $101 19d
LoL: FURIA Esports vs LOS - Game 1 Winner BUY LOS 61¢ $101 19d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $68.75 · official $68.75 (match) · 114 history records