trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 8 | -27.8% | -34.7% | 50% | 38% | -24.9% |
| ≤30d | 10 | -42.2% | -47.7% | 40% | 30% | -35.9% |
| ≤90d | 10 | -42.2% | -47.7% | 40% | 30% | -35.9% |
| all | 20 | -33.5% | -39.8% | 45% | 40% | +18.2% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal | -39.8% | 40% | +18.2% |
| 10% ← realistic here | -45.6% | 40% | +6.9% |
| 15% | -50.8% | 20% | -3.4% |
| 20% | -55.7% | 10% | -12.9% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by June 30, 2026? | Yes | 74¢ | 4¢ | $2,159 | $110 | −$2,049 (-95%) |
| Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by June 30, 2026? | No | 76¢ | 4¢ | $1,247 | $65 | −$1,182 (-95%) |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on June 30, 2026? | Yes | 57¢ | 0¢ | $1,134 | $2 | −$1,132 (-100%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by June 26, 2026? | Jun 23 | $86 | −$36 | -42% |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on June 23, 2026? | Jun 23 | $152 | −$144 | -95% |
| Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? | Jun 21 | $194 | +$106 | +55% |
| Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? | Jun 20 | $186 | −$186 | -100% |
| Will a new Gemini flagship be released by June 19, 2026? | Jun 20 | $339 | +$87 | +26% |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by June 19, 2026? | Jun 20 | $405 | +$132 | +32% |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on June 25, 2026? | Jun 20 | $3 | $0 | +2% |
| Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? | Jun 19 | $235 | −$230 | -98% |
| Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? | Jun 13 | $176 | −$173 | -98% |
| Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? | Jun 13 | $104 | −$101 | -98% |
| Will Gemini 3.0 be released on November 18 2025? | Nov 19 | $542 | +$177 | +33% |
| Will Gemini 3.0 be released by November 30? | Nov 19 | $9,941 | +$3,601 | +36% |
| Will Gemini 3.0 be released by November 22? | Nov 19 | $43,430 | +$12,938 | +30% |
| Will Gemini 3.0 be released by November 15? | Nov 05 | $530 | −$460 | -87% |
| Will the Los Angeles Dodgers win the 2025 World Series? | Nov 02 | $500 | +$225 | +45% |
| Will Gemini 3.0 be released by October 31? | Nov 01 | $7,565 | +$7,212 | +95% |
| OpenAI browser by October 31? | Oct 21 | $1,408 | −$1,408 | -100% |
| Mariners vs. Blue Jays | Oct 18 | $100 | −$100 | -100% |
| Blue Jays vs. Mariners | Oct 18 | $1,000 | −$1,000 | -100% |
| Brewers vs. Dodgers | Oct 17 | $100 | −$100 | -100% |