Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T21:29:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AE 0xaeaf…1223 other 27 markets active 2h ago coverage 465d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized −$1 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate48%13W / 14L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit59%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 54% −$1
other 34% +$1
politics 6% $0
crypto 3% −$1
weather 3% +$1
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-12.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.6% -10.1% 0% 0% -10.6%
≤30d 9 -0.2% -9.7% 33% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 9 -0.2% -9.7% 33% 0% -9.7%
all 27 -3.5% -12.7% 48% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -21.1% 0% -18.4%
15% -28.7% 0% -26.2%
20% -35.7% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 54% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.55 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.71 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

465d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses13 / 14
Open positions0
Markets (closed)27 / 27
History coverage465d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit59%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 27 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 18 $48 −$1 -1%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $2 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 07 $5 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 06 $62 $0 -1%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 05 $44 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 05 $121 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 04 $2 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 03 $44 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 03 $44 $0 +0%
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2025 World Series? Dec 15 $2 $0 +1%
Will Alexander Zverev win Wimbledon 2025? Jun 23 $11 $0 +0%
Will Xi Jinping be the first leader out in 2025? Jun 22 $11 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump be the first leader out in 2025? Jun 22 $11 $0 -0%
US military action against Iran before July? Jun 21 $6 $0 -4%
Will Inter Milan win the FIFA Club World Cup? Jun 21 $11 $0 +0%
Will Trump deport 1,250,000-1,500,000 people? Jun 20 $12 $0 +2%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win Super Bowl 2026? May 18 $13 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 101-1k Gold Cards in 2025? May 17 $12 $0 -2%
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president before July? May 15 $12 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Capitals win the 2025 Stanley Cup? May 13 $13 +$1 +7%
Dogecoin above $0.17 on March 28? Mar 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be between 60-61°F on March 25? Mar 27 $14 +$1 +4%
Will the Winnipeg Jets win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 25 $14 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet less than 400 times March 14-21? Mar 20 $14 −$1 -6%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $91000 and $93000 on Mar 14? Mar 15 $15 $0 +2%
Will Feyenoord or Inter Milan advance in the UCL Round of 16? Mar 12 $12 $0 +3%
Will Inter Milan win the UEFA Champions League? Mar 11 $2 $0 -3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 81¢ $47 1h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 82¢ $48 2h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes $2 14h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes $0 16h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes $2 16h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 32¢ $5 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 32¢ $5 11d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $3 12d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $41 12d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $44 12d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 45¢ $44 13d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 45¢ $44 13d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $18 13d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 81¢ $18 13d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $19 13d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $19 13d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL Yes $2 14d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY Yes $1 14d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY Yes $2 14d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 80¢ $14 14d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 80¢ $34 14d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 80¢ $48 14d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 49¢ $44 15d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 49¢ $41 15d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 49¢ $3 15d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $18 15d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $8 15d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $18 15d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $44 15d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 20¢ $2 15d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 84 history records