Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T05:35:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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AE 0xaeaa…ed6d crypto 235 markets active 0h ago coverage 11d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 10d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (286 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$8,988 (-2%) realized −$9,004 · open +$16
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -56% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -68% what you keep after slip
Net edge-68%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate19%104W / 454L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,754per market
Trades / day286.2pace
Fees−$37est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$315now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 11d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 95% −$3,411
other 4% −$377
sports 2% +$2,367
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (286 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-60.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 456 -64.9% -68.3% 16% 4% -16.0%
≤30d 558 -56.3% -60.4% 19% 5% -14.9%
≤90d 558 -56.3% -60.4% 19% 5% -14.9%
all 558 -56.3% -60.4% 19% 5% -14.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover286.2 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -60.4% 5% -14.9%
10% -64.2% 3% -23.1%
15% ← realistic here -67.7% 3% -30.5%
20% -70.9% 3% -37.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
70% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -56% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -24% → late -89% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$64 vs −$84 · ×0.76 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.2 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage
Net worth$315
Realized−$9,004
Unrealized+$16
Win rate (resolved)19%
Wins / losses104 / 454
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Est. fees paid−$37
Open positions1
Markets (closed)558 / 235
History coverage11d ⚠
Avg bet$1,754
Trades / day286.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 558 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? No 92¢ 97¢ $299 $315 +$16 (+5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 356 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 17 $50 −$53 -106%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 17 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 17 $105 −$105 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 17 $11 −$10 -91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 17 $22 −$17 -76%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 2, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 17 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 17 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 17 $95 −$186 -196%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 17 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 17 $60 −$60 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 17 $16 −$11 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 17 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 17 $18 −$18 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 3, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 17 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 17 $150 −$150 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 17 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 17 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 17 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 17 $12 −$1 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 17 $375 −$450 -120%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 17 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 17 $250 −$250 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$2 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$8 -74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 17 $200 −$200 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 17 $150 −$150 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 17 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 17 $260 −$260 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 17 $210 −$210 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 17 $60 −$60 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 17 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 17 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 17 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 88¢ $100 18m
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 95¢ $200 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12AM ET SELL Up 100¢ $4 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12AM ET SELL Up 100¢ $100 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12AM ET SELL Up 100¢ $31 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12AM ET SELL Down 9¢ $1 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12AM ET SELL Down 9¢ $6 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12AM ET SELL Down 9¢ $35 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12AM ET SELL Down 15¢ $1 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12AM ET SELL Down 16¢ $3 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12AM ET SELL Down 16¢ $3 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12AM ET SELL Down 16¢ $22 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12AM ET SELL Up 85¢ $17 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12AM ET SELL Up 85¢ $18 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12AM ET SELL Up 85¢ $34 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12AM ET SELL Up 85¢ $4 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12AM ET SELL Up 85¢ $12 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12AM ET SELL Up 85¢ $18 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12AM ET SELL Up 85¢ $34 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12AM ET SELL Up 85¢ $22 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12AM ET SELL Up 85¢ $17 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12AM ET SELL Up 85¢ $4 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12AM ET SELL Up 85¢ $34 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12AM ET SELL Up 80¢ $20 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12AM ET SELL Up 80¢ $13 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12AM ET SELL Up 80¢ $21 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12AM ET SELL Up 80¢ $21 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12AM ET SELL Up 80¢ $21 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12AM ET SELL Up 80¢ $32 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12AM ET SELL Up 80¢ $21 54m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $315.14 · official $282.74 · 3500 history records