Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T22:58:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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AE 0xaea5…26e3 sports 221 markets active 0h ago coverage 39d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$42 (-2%) realized −$41 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate55%118W / 97L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day13.5pace
Fees−$35est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$59now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$284
7 days−$132
14 days−$86
30 days−$61
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 84% +$18
other 13% −$67
crypto 2% −$8
politics 0% $0
economics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-10.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 127 -14.1% -22.3% 51% 39% -16.0%
≤30d 201 -1.8% -11.2% 56% 44% -12.0%
≤90d 215 -0.9% -10.4% 55% 44% -11.8%
all 215 -0.9% -10.4% 55% 44% -11.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.4% 44% -11.8%
10% -18.9% 36% -20.3%
15% -26.8% 29% -28.0%
20% -34.0% 23% -35.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
19% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +16% → late -18% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$8 · ×0.76 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

39d coverage
Net worth$59
Realized−$41
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses118 / 97
Est. fees paid−$35
Open positions3
Markets (closed)215 / 221
History coverage39d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day13.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 215 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees New York Yankees 62¢ 62¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-1%)
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners Seattle Mariners 55¢ 55¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-1%)
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Yes 61¢ 60¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $25 $0 -1%
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 17 $51 −$2 -4%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $15 +$11 +71%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $15 −$15 -99%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $25 −$25 -99%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 17 $15 +$7 +48%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Jun 17 $51 +$35 +69%
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 17 $25 +$17 +67%
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 6.5 Corners Jun 16 $15 −$15 -99%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $25 +$22 +86%
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 16 $51 −$50 -99%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $20 −$20 -100%
O/U 1.5 Rounds Jun 16 $20 −$20 -100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $20 −$20 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $35 −$35 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 16 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 16 $51 −$51 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $142 −$115 -82%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics Jun 16 $3 −$2 -93%
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5) Jun 16 $25 +$26 +103%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Jun 16 $25 +$17 +67%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros Jun 16 $3 $0 +4%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $25 +$16 +64%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $10 +$9 +86%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $20 +$30 +145%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $20 −$13 -64%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $51 −$48 -95%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $15 +$17 +114%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $141 +$21 +15%
O/U 2.5 Rounds Jun 15 $25 +$40 +158%
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai Jun 15 $20 +$5 +23%
San Francisco Giants vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Australia O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Texas Rangers Jun 15 $5 −$2 -47%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Cincinnati Reds vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Cincinnati Reds vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 15 $15 −$1 -5%
Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 15 $8 −$1 -19%
Seattle Mariners vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Washington Nationals vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 15 $8 −$3 -33%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 15 $13 −$1 -9%
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Chicago White Sox vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 15 $8 −$2 -28%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Alonzo Menifield vs. Zhang Mingyang (Light Heavyweigh Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY 52¢ $15 15m
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners BUY Seattle Mariners 55¢ $25 31m
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees BUY New York Yankees 62¢ $25 41m
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? SELL No 60¢ $25 47m
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves SELL Atlanta Braves 56¢ $48 49m
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 99¢ $26 1h
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves BUY Atlanta Braves 57¢ $51 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 60¢ $15 4h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 59¢ $25 4h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY No 52¢ $25 4h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $15 10h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 AND Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY 32¢ $5 10h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers SELL Los Angeles Dodgers 86¢ $23 19h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 57¢ $15 20h
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals SELL Washington Nationals 96¢ $86 21h
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees SELL New York Yankees 98¢ $42 22h
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 6.5 Corners BUY Over 59¢ $15 25h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $47 25h
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees BUY New York Yankees 58¢ $25 28h
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves BUY Atlanta Braves 61¢ $51 29h
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals BUY Washington Nationals 56¢ $51 33h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 53¢ $25 39h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics SELL Pittsburgh Pirates 3¢ $0 43h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Los Angeles Angels 42¢ $3 45h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 41¢ $3 45h
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5) SELL Philadelphia Phillies 99¢ $52 45h
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals SELL Washington Nationals 95¢ $42 46h
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros SELL Houston Astros 45¢ $3 46h
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros BUY Houston Astros 42¢ $3 46h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 93¢ $42 46h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $59.33 · official $74.33 · 624 history records