Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T20:10:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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AE 0xaea4…106e crypto 494 markets active 0h ago coverage 15d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 14d only
✗ bot/MM pace (222 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,545 (-8%) realized −$1,524 · open −$21
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -44% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -56% what you keep after slip
Net edge-56%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate28%192W / 492L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$40per market
Trades / day222.5pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$3,049now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2,854
7 days−$2,854
14 days−$3,079
30 days−$3,251
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 52% −$412
crypto 48% −$17
sports 1% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (222 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-48.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 203 -91.3% -92.1% 3% 3% -92.1%
≤30d 684 -43.5% -48.9% 28% 25% -23.2%
≤90d 684 -43.5% -48.9% 28% 25% -23.2%
all 684 -43.5% -48.9% 28% 25% -23.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover222.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -48.9% 25% -23.2%
10% ← realistic here -53.8% 19% -30.6%
15% -58.3% 16% -37.3%
20% -62.3% 13% -43.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -18% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -44% · $-wt -18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -25% → late -62% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$12 · ×1.13 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.44 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

15d coverage
Net worth$3,049
Realized−$1,524
Unrealized−$21
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses192 / 492
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions11
Markets (closed)684 / 494
History coverage15d ⚠
Avg bet$40
Trades / day222.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 684 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Yes 96¢ 95¢ $1,300 $1,293 −$7 (-1%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Yes 89¢ 88¢ $1,000 $994 −$6 (-1%)
Brazil leading at halftime? Yes 71¢ 70¢ $300 $298 −$2 (-1%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Yes 56¢ 60¢ $100 $106 +$6 (+6%)
Brazil to win the second half? Yes 78¢ 78¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Endrick: 1+ goals Yes 44¢ 41¢ $100 $92 −$8 (-8%)
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Yes 44¢ 44¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-1%)
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Yes 27¢ 26¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-2%)
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Yes 30¢ 30¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+0%)
Exact Score: United States 3 - 1 Australia? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-4%)
Exact Score: United States 3 - 0 Australia? Yes 26¢ 24¢ $20 $18 −$2 (-10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 398 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 19 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 19 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 19 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 19 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 19 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 19 $105 −$110 -105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 19 $1 −$7 -1200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 19 $10 −$18 -172%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 19 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 19 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 19 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 19 $5 −$6 -117%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 19 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 19 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 19 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 19 $3 −$6 -197%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 19 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 19 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 19 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 19 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 19 $2 −$3 -106%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 19 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 19 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 19 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 19 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 19 $10 −$7 -65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 19 $20 −$30 -145%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 19 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 19 $8 −$14 -183%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 19 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 19 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 19 $10 −$10 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 30¢ $31 7m
Exact Score: United States 3 - 0 Australia? BUY Yes 26¢ $20 7m
Exact Score: United States 3 - 1 Australia? BUY Yes 12¢ $21 7m
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 96¢ $300 9m
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 96¢ $1,001 12m
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 96¢ $314 13m
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? SELL Yes 13¢ $17 58m
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $101 1h
Brazil to win the second half? BUY Yes 78¢ $101 1h
Brazil leading at halftime? BUY Yes 71¢ $101 1h
Endrick: 1+ goals BUY Yes 44¢ $102 1h
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $31 1h
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $51 1h
Brazil leading at halftime? BUY Yes 71¢ $202 1h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 44¢ $51 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $105 4h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $100 16h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $903 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $2 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $2 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $2 16h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 56¢ $101 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET SELL Down 49¢ $2 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET SELL Down 49¢ $2 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $2 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $2 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET SELL Down 52¢ $3 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET SELL Down 52¢ $3 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $2 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $2 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,048.51 · official $3,048.51 (match) · 3500 history records