Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T03:50:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AE 0xaea4…a85f other 130 markets active 1h ago coverage 143d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$612 (-0%) realized −$612 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate26%34W / 96L
Whale WR3%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,044per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$20
14 days−$26
30 days−$39
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 43% −$67
other 38% +$83
sports 12% −$624
economics 2% −$2
world 2% −$15
culture 2% −$4
crypto 1% +$2
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-12.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 24 -0.1% -9.6% 8% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 71 -17.0% -24.9% 7% 0% -12.1%
all 130 -2.8% -12.0% 26% 8% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.0% 8% -9.9%
10% -20.4% 8% -18.6%
15% -28.1% 6% -26.4%
20% -35.2% 5% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 62% · top 2 75% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
68% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 3% (≥$1,282) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +11% → late -17% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$49 vs −$24 · ×2.05 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.73 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

143d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$612
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses34 / 96
Whale WR (big bets)3%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)130 / 130
History coverage143d
Avg bet$1,044
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 130 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 18 $711 −$1 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $4,221 −$4 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 14 $3,192 −$4 -0%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 14 $1,404 −$2 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 13 $1,072 −$2 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 12 $2,033 −$2 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 12 $1,046 −$2 -0%
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 11 $911 −$1 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 11 $935 −$1 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 07 $996 −$2 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 07 $1,032 −$1 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 06 $2,233 −$3 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 03 $1,886 −$3 -0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 03 $903 −$1 -0%
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 03 $1,067 −$2 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in May? Jun 02 $241 +$1 +0%
Will XRP reach $2.40 in May? Jun 02 $478 $0 +0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $3,210 −$3 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? May 28 $476 −$1 -0%
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 27 $430 −$1 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 24 $648 −$1 -0%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 24 $617 −$1 -0%
Will Kemi Badenoch be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in May 24 $610 −$1 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? May 23 $615 −$1 -0%
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 08 $1,137 −$1 -0%
Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 08 $1,154 −$1 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 07 $1,162 −$2 -0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? May 06 $1,125 −$2 -0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? May 06 $1,142 −$1 -0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? May 06 $1,176 −$1 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 05 $1,145 −$1 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 02 $1,041 −$1 -0%
Will Luxembourg win Eurovision 2026? May 02 $1,053 −$2 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 30 $4,783 −$5 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Apr 30 $512 −$1 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 m Apr 30 $616 +$1 +0%
Will Park Ju-min win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 27 $431 $0 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 22 $2,298 −$2 -0%
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 20 $2,094 −$2 -0%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 19 $1,057 −$1 -0%
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 18 $1,151 −$1 -0%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 18 $1,063 −$1 -0%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 18 $2,446 −$2 -0%
Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2026? Apr 17 $2,182 −$2 -0%
Will Georgia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 16 $1,080 −$1 -0%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? Apr 15 $850 −$1 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 14 $707 −$1 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 14 $854 −$1 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 13 $1,044 $0 +0%
Will Malta win Eurovision 2026? Apr 12 $98 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $709 1h
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $711 3h
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $743 44h
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $744 2d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $884 3d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $885 3d
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $916 3d
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $917 4d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,070 4d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,072 5d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $972 5d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $973 5d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $953 6d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $955 6d
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $910 6d
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $911 6d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $934 6d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $935 7d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $901 10d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $902 10d
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $1,031 11d
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,032 11d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,034 11d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,035 11d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $810 14d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $812 14d
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $902 14d
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 99¢ $903 14d
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $1,065 14d
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 99¢ $1,067 15d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 418 history records