Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T03:57:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AE 0xae9f…763c other 56 markets active 1h ago coverage 216d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$358 (-35%) realized −$341 · open −$17
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -61% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -65% what you keep after slip
Net edge-65%after slip
Net WR15%break-even
Win rate18%7W / 32L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$163now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 42% −$347
other 24% −$65
finance 12% +$171
economics 8% −$28
world 5% −$23
sports 4% −$39
politics 4% −$32
tech 1% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +15%
net ROI/market (all)-64.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d 10 -71.0% -73.7% 10% 10% -36.1%
all 39 -61.2% -64.9% 18% 15% -50.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -64.9% 15% -50.0%
10% -68.3% 15% -54.8%
15% -71.3% 13% -59.1%
20% -74.1% 13% -63.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 87% · top 2 90% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -29% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -61% · $-wt -45% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -51% → late -71% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$31 vs −$18 · ×1.74 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.38 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

216d coverage
Net worth$163
Realized−$341
Unrealized−$17
Win rate (resolved)18%
Wins / losses7 / 32
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions17
Markets (closed)39 / 56
History coverage216d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 17 History 39 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-5%)
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-0%)
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-27? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-3%)
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-4%)
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-5%)
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-5%)
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-26? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-5%)
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-5%)
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-6%)
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-6%)
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-23? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-6%)
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-25? Yes 7¢ 6¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-7%)
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-8%)
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-98%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 31 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Heat vs. Wizards Apr 10 $20 −$19 -97%
T20 Kalahari Tournament, Women: Brazil vs Mozambique Apr 10 $20 −$19 -97%
Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 April 6-12? Apr 10 $20 −$19 -93%
Will Bitcoin reach $78,000 April 6-12? Apr 10 $20 −$19 -93%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 8? Apr 08 $20 −$19 -93%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in April? Apr 08 $100 −$94 -94%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in April? Apr 08 $100 +$190 +190%
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in April? Apr 02 $100 −$93 -93%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee Mar 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Trump visit China by March 31? Mar 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in March? Mar 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in March? Mar 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee Mar 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down on March 10? Mar 10 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31? Mar 07 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $60 by end of March? Mar 07 $19 −$19 -100%
Will there be no new Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30? Mar 05 $20 +$7 +35%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in February? Feb 26 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on February 25? Feb 25 $50 −$25 -50%
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Feb 25 $50 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 by December 31, 2025? Nov 26 $9 +$3 +32%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? Nov 24 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Gold close between $3600 and $3700 at the end of 2025? Nov 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $150 end of November? Nov 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting? Nov 21 $15 −$8 -51%
Will Bitcoin reach $115,000 in November? Nov 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Henry Kissinger be named in newly released Epstein files? Nov 21 $5 +$7 +135%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $96,000 on November 20? Nov 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Mamdani visit the White House by December 31? Nov 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Trump release the Epstein files by November 21? Nov 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $85,000 in November? Nov 19 $5 +$4 +84%
House passes Epstein disclosure bill/resolution in 2025? Nov 18 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2025? Nov 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs? Nov 18 $5 $0 -4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $94,000 on November 18? Nov 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $108,000 November 10-16? Nov 18 $5 +$8 +150%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Novem Nov 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $100,000 on November 14? Nov 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the Government shutdown end November 12-15? Nov 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 6¢ $10 1h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 1h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 7¢ $10 1h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 1h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 4¢ $10 1h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 4¢ $10 1h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 4¢ $10 1h
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 4¢ $10 1h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 1h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 1h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 1h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 1h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 1h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 1h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 3¢ $10 1h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 3¢ $10 1h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 6¢ $10 1h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 3¢ $10 1h
Heat vs. Wizards BUY Wizards 8¢ $20 65d
T20 Kalahari Tournament, Women: Brazil vs Mozambique BUY Mozambique 6¢ $20 65d
Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 April 6-12? BUY Yes 2¢ $20 66d
Will Bitcoin reach $78,000 April 6-12? BUY Yes 4¢ $20 66d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 8? BUY Yes 3¢ $20 67d
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in April? BUY Yes 10¢ $100 68d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in April? SELL Yes 57¢ $290 68d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in April? BUY Yes 19¢ $100 72d
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in April? BUY Yes 2¢ $100 73d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee BUY No 6¢ $10 88d
Will Trump visit China by March 31? BUY Yes 4¢ $20 89d
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in March? BUY Yes 4¢ $10 90d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $162.75 · official $162.76 (match) · 70 history records