Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T01:49:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
AE 0xae97…3edc sports 9 markets active 1h ago coverage 4d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$2,542 (+20%) realized +$2,542 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate56%5W / 4L
Drawdown46%max
Avg bet$1,418per market
Trades / day3.8pace
Fees−$81est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 55% +$3,624
world 24% −$1,430
other 21% +$897
crypto 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-0.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +10.2% -0.3% 56% 44% +12.3%
≤30d 9 +10.2% -0.3% 56% 44% +12.3%
≤90d 9 +10.2% -0.3% 56% 44% +12.3%
all 9 +10.2% -0.3% 56% 44% +12.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -0.3% 44% +12.3%
10% -9.8% 33% +1.6%
15% -18.5% 33% -8.2%
20% -26.5% 22% -17.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 45% · top 2 70% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +24% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +10% · $-wt +24% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$914 vs −$373 · ×2.45 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.07 per $1 lost it wins $3.07
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$2,542
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses5 / 4
Est. fees paid−$81
Open positions0
Markets (closed)9 / 9
History coverage4d
Avg bet$1,418
Trades / day3.8
Drawdown46%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 9 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 18 $1,565 +$2,075 +133%
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? Jun 17 $3,000 −$1,430 -48%
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 17 $2,855 +$146 +5%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $1,903 +$948 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -94%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 16 $1,810 +$295 +16%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $782 +$1,108 +142%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $836 −$51 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? SELL Yes 88¢ $3,639 55m
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 37¢ $1,565 2h
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? SELL Yes 10¢ $1,570 2h
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? BUY Yes 18¢ $3,000 3h
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs SELL Colorado Rockies 99¢ $3,001 22h
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs BUY Colorado Rockies 94¢ $2,855 23h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 97¢ $2,851 23h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 64¢ $1,903 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Up 4¢ $5 26h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers SELL Los Angeles Dodgers 96¢ $2,105 45h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 82¢ $1,810 45h
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Knicks 89¢ $1,890 3d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 36¢ $782 3d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 10¢ $785 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $5 4d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $836 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 18 history records