Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T09:11:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AE 0xae96…db76 crypto 18 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ bot/MM pace (101 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$201 (+48%) realized +$201 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +45% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +12% what you keep after slip
Net edge+12%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate44%8W / 10L
Drawdown24%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day101.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$269
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (101 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)+31.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 +45.3% +31.5% 44% 44% +49.1%
≤30d 18 +45.3% +31.5% 44% 44% +49.1%
≤90d 18 +45.3% +31.5% 44% 44% +49.1%
all 18 +45.3% +31.5% 44% 44% +49.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover101.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +31.5% 44% +49.1%
10% ← realistic here +18.9% 44% +34.9%
15% +7.4% 44% +21.8%
20% -3.1% 44% +9.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 46% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +65% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +45% · $-wt +65% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late +93% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
5.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$52 vs −$15 · ×3.5 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.8 per $1 lost it wins $2.8
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$201
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses8 / 10
Open positions0
Markets (closed)18 / 18
History coverage1d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day101.0
Drawdown24%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 18 Trades
no open positions (10 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 15 $54 +$86 +158%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 15 $25 −$24 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 15 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 15 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 15 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 15 $13 +$47 +368%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 15 $15 +$105 +709%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 15 $46 −$46 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 15 $45 +$45 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 15 $45 +$45 +99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 15 $46 +$44 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 15 $46 +$44 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 15 $33 −$33 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 14 $2 +$3 +190%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $7 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $9 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $7 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $7 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $8 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $8 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $8 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 7¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 12¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 15¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 15¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 15¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 15¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 15¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 19¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 23¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 4¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 7¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Up 3¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Up 3¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Up 4¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Up 14¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Up 15¢ $3 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 110 history records