Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T03:34:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

AE
0xae94…af2c
crypto · 409 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$1,270 -10%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$1,427 · open +$158
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$238
Realized−$1,427
Unrealized+$158
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses186 / 511
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions1
Markets (closed)697 / 409
History coverage11d
Avg bet$31
Trades / day289.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%
Chart Positions 1 History 697 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,246
7 days−$1,277
14 days−$1,427
30 days−$1,427
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
United States leading at halftime? Yes 34¢ 100¢ $80 $238 +$158 (+197%)
Ethereum Up or Down - May 30, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Down 17¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Down 3¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - May 30, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Up 10¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Up 11¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Up 63¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - May 30, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Up 13¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Down 31¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Down 17¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Down 71¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Up 22¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Down 16¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Up 60¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Down 13¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Up 21¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Down 19¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Up 17¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Down 27¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - May 31, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Down 14¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Down 20¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Up 36¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Down 17¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Down 16¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Up 12¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Up 20¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - May 30, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 30, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 13 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 30, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 13 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 31, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 29, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 31, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 31, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 30, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 31, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 1, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 13 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 13 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 96% −$191
sports 2% +$310
other 1% +$294
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $27 13m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $18 13m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $14 13m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Up 9¢ $0 13m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Up 9¢ $0 14m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Up 9¢ $0 14m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Up 11¢ $1 14m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Up 13¢ $1 14m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Up 9¢ $0 14m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Up 9¢ $0 14m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Up 11¢ $0 14m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Up 9¢ $0 14m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Up 9¢ $0 14m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Up 11¢ $1 14m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Up 11¢ $1 14m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Up 11¢ $0 14m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Up 13¢ $0 14m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Up 13¢ $1 14m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Up 13¢ $0 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $7 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $5 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $5 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $2 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $2 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Down 23¢ $2 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $14 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $14 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 13¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $9 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $9 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-46.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 573 -46.0% -51.1% 26% 7% -19.2%
≤30d 697 -40.5% -46.2% 27% 8% -18.5%
≤90d 697 -40.5% -46.2% 27% 8% -18.5%
all 697 -40.5% -46.2% 27% 8% -18.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover289.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -46.2% 8% -18.5%
10% ← realistic here -51.3% 4% -26.3%
15% -56.0% 3% -33.5%
20% -60.3% 2% -40.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $237.51 · official $237.51 (match) · 3500 history records