Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T13:48:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AE 0xae94…6b17 sports 142 markets active 0h ago coverage 9d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 9d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (371 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$2,963 (+3%) realized +$3,763 · open −$800
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -26% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -43% what you keep after slip
Net edge-43%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate54%113W / 98L
Whale WR85%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$794per market
Trades / day370.9pace
Fees−$1,549est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$116now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 9d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 99% +$2,933
other 1% +$105
crypto 0% +$25
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (371 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-33.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 182 -31.8% -38.3% 49% 25% -9.1%
≤30d 211 -25.9% -33.0% 54% 26% -9.4%
≤90d 211 -25.9% -33.0% 54% 26% -9.4%
all 211 -25.9% -33.0% 54% 26% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover370.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -33.0% 26% -9.4%
10% ← realistic here -39.4% 11% -18.1%
15% -45.3% 6% -26.0%
20% -50.6% 4% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
49% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -26% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 85% (≥$552) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +0% → late -52% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
14.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$92 vs −$118 · ×0.78 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage
Net worth$116
Realized+$3,763
Unrealized−$800
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses113 / 98
Whale WR (big bets)85%
Est. fees paid−$1,549
Open positions2
Markets (closed)211 / 142
History coverage9d ⚠
Avg bet$794
Trades / day370.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 211 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 TheMongolz 19¢ 22¢ $94 $112 +$19 (+20%)
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger - Game 1 Winner Saigon Warriors 12¢ 0¢ $822 $3 −$819 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 94 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 15 $35 −$35 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 15 $1,300 −$1,300 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 15 $43 −$43 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 15 $27 −$3 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 15 $16 −$16 -100%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Team WE - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $19 −$147 -770%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 15 $388 −$388 -100%
LoL: EDward Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $14 −$2 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 15 $35 −$7 -20%
Valorant: LOUD vs NRG (BO5) - Esports World Cup Americas Qualifier Sta Jun 15 $3 −$14 -427%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 15 $100 −$92 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$6 -172%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 15 $14 −$21 -149%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 15 $160 −$160 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 15 $45 −$45 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 15 $480 −$480 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 15 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 15 $160 −$160 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 15 $33 −$13 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 15 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 15 $88 −$88 -100%
LoL: L Guide Gaming vs RAYN Clocks - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Lynn Vision (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 15 $66 −$88 -133%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 15 $645 −$645 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$1 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 15 $30 +$18 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 15 $20 +$5 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 15 $65 −$65 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 15 $18 −$20 -110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 15 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 15 $11 −$4 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 15 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 15 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 15 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 15 $29 −$29 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 11¢ $11 3m
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 14¢ $14 4m
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 18¢ $4 6m
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 18¢ $1 6m
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 18¢ $4 6m
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 18¢ $9 6m
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 25¢ $25 8m
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 26¢ $27 8m
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL TheMongolz 30¢ $65 14m
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL TheMongolz 29¢ $62 14m
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL TheMongolz 28¢ $5 17m
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL TheMongolz 28¢ $2 17m
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL TheMongolz 28¢ $33 17m
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL TheMongolz 28¢ $5 18m
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL TheMongolz 28¢ $6 18m
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL TheMongolz 28¢ $43 18m
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL TheMongolz 26¢ $47 19m
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL TheMongolz 26¢ $20 19m
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL TheMongolz 17¢ $0 25m
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL TheMongolz 17¢ $2 25m
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL TheMongolz 17¢ $5 25m
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL TheMongolz 17¢ $3 25m
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL TheMongolz 17¢ $47 25m
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 11¢ $5 28m
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 11¢ $6 28m
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 12¢ $18 28m
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 12¢ $43 28m
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 18¢ $11 35m
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 23¢ $24 37m
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 28¢ $9 40m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $115.99 · official $115.99 (match) · 3500 history records