Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T12:08:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AE 0xae94…55bc sports 61 markets active 1d ago coverage 45d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$2 (-1%) realized −$2 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -3% what you keep after slip
Net edge-3%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate36%21W / 37L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days+$5
14 days+$5
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 69% +$1
other 26% +$2
world 3% −$5
crypto 1% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-2.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 34 +14.7% +3.8% 38% 38% -4.2%
≤30d 41 +14.5% +3.6% 34% 34% -11.0%
≤90d 58 +7.3% -2.9% 36% 36% -12.0%
all 58 +7.3% -2.9% 36% 36% -12.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.9% 36% -12.0%
10% -12.2% 34% -20.4%
15% -20.7% 33% -28.1%
20% -28.4% 29% -35.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +18% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$2 · ×1.67 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.95 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

45d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses21 / 37
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)58 / 61
History coverage45d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 58 Trades
no open positions (23 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $4 −$4 -98%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $2 −$2 -98%
Austria vs. Jordan: Draw at halftime? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -98%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $7 +$3 +46%
Norway leading at halftime? Jun 16 $1 +$1 +119%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $9 +$2 +19%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $3 +$3 +87%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $5 −$3 -58%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -50%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $2 −$1 -72%
France vs. Senegal: Draw at halftime? Jun 16 $2 +$3 +156%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -89%
IR Iran leading at halftime? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -98%
Mehdi Taremi: 1+ goals Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Mehdi Taremi: 1+ assists Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $4 −$4 -98%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $6 +$10 +170%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Uruguay O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $2 −$1 -42%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2 $0 -0%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $4 +$2 +53%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Draw at halftime? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -77%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $2 +$1 +30%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 15 $1 $0 +42%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $3 +$3 +97%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 +$5 +473%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $2 $0 -5%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $2 −$2 -88%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $1 +$4 +383%
Will Justin Gaethje win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $1 +$5 +503%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Jun 13 $2 −$2 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) Jun 13 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $4 −$4 -98%
Will Bitcoin dip to $72,500 in May? May 29 $2 −$2 -97%
Will CD Universidad Católica win on 2026-05-28? May 29 $1 +$7 +642%
Will CA Boca Juniors vs. CD Universidad Católica end in a draw? May 29 $1 $0 -48%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 2.5 May 28 $2 −$2 -98%
Paris Saint-Germain FC leading at halftime? May 28 $2 −$2 -98%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 10.5 Total Corners May 28 $3 −$3 -98%
Aston Villa FC vs. Liverpool FC: Both Teams to Score May 15 $2 +$1 +67%
Aston Villa FC vs. Liverpool FC: O/U 10.5 Total Corners May 15 $3 −$3 -99%
FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: O/U 3.5 May 06 $3 +$7 +237%
FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: O/U 8.5 Total Corners May 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-06? May 06 $5 −$5 -98%
Bukayo Saka: Anytime Goalscorer May 05 $1 +$2 +226%
Arsenal FC vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: O/U 10.5 Total Corners May 05 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-03? May 03 $2 +$1 +73%
Vinicius Junior: Anytime Goalscorer May 03 $2 +$2 +113%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 42¢ $4 32h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 49¢ $2 32h
Austria vs. Jordan: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 39¢ $4 32h
Austria vs. Jordan: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners AND Austria vs. Jor BUY 50¢ $3 32h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 9.5 Total Corners SELL Under 100¢ $10 33h
Norway leading at halftime? SELL Yes 96¢ $2 37h
Norway leading at halftime? BUY Yes 43¢ $1 37h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 68¢ $7 39h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score AND Will Argentina win on 2 BUY 30¢ $5 39h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $8 39h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 9.5 Total Corners SELL Over 99¢ $6 39h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 82¢ $3 39h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? SELL Yes 16¢ $2 39h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 42¢ $1 39h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 45¢ $2 39h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 38¢ $1 39h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes $1 39h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 39h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 47¢ $3 39h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 16¢ $1 39h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 35¢ $3 40h
France vs. Senegal: Draw at halftime? SELL Yes 99¢ $5 40h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $4 44h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 52¢ $3 44h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 56¢ $2 44h
France vs. Senegal: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 38¢ $2 44h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes $0 2d
IR Iran leading at halftime? BUY Yes 38¢ $2 2d
Mehdi Taremi: 1+ goals BUY Yes 34¢ $1 2d
Mehdi Taremi: 1+ assists BUY Yes 23¢ $1 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 103 history records