Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T18:21:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AE 0xae8f…c820 weather 512 markets active 1h ago coverage 94d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 93d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$1,191 (+9%) realized +$1,247 · open −$56
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate38%196W / 314L
Drawdown88%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day34.5pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$197
7 days+$265
14 days+$266
30 days+$256
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% +$775
sports 0% −$2
other 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-11.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 31 +18.7% +7.4% 52% 48% +21.5%
≤30d 55 +8.0% -2.3% 45% 40% +15.5%
≤90d 483 -2.3% -11.6% 38% 35% -3.4%
all 510 -1.7% -11.0% 38% 35% -3.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover34.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.0% 35% -3.5%
10% ← realistic here -19.6% 34% -12.7%
15% -27.3% 31% -21.1%
20% -34.5% 30% -28.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +6% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -6% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
4.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$34 vs −$19 · ×1.82 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.14 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

94d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1,247
Unrealized−$56
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses196 / 314
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)510 / 512
History coverage94d ⚠
Avg bet$25
Trades / day34.5
Drawdown88%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 510 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 37°C on June 29? Yes 40¢ 0¢ $36 $0 −$36 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 29°C on June 29? Yes 25¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 57 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 29? Jun 29 $15 +$30 +201%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 35°C or below on June 29? Jun 29 $58 +$20 +34%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 36°C or below on June 29? Jun 29 $37 +$50 +133%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 30°C on June 29? Jun 29 $34 +$27 +80%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 38°C on June 28? Jun 28 $40 +$63 +155%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 39°C on June 28? Jun 28 $32 −$32 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 36°C on June 28? Jun 28 $29 −$17 -57%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 36°C on June 28? Jun 28 $23 +$18 +79%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 35°C on June 28? Jun 28 $12 −$7 -58%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 37°C on June 27? Jun 28 $13 −$13 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 35°C on June 27? Jun 27 $41 +$58 +143%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 36°C on June 27? Jun 27 $31 +$45 +144%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 36°C on June 27? Jun 27 $36 +$53 +148%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 35°C on June 27? Jun 27 $42 −$41 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 35°C on June 26? Jun 27 $36 −$29 -81%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 34°C on June 26? Jun 26 $18 +$42 +230%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on June 26? Jun 26 $21 +$25 +118%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 36°C on June 27? Jun 26 $21 −$21 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 35°C on June 26? Jun 26 $32 −$19 -60%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on June 25? Jun 26 $24 −$24 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 32°C on June 26? Jun 26 $44 +$25 +57%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 31°C on June 26? Jun 26 $16 −$16 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 35°C on June 25? Jun 25 $17 +$33 +194%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 31°C on June 25? Jun 25 $19 +$16 +85%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 34°C on June 25? Jun 25 $24 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 30°C on June 25? Jun 24 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 29°C on June 24? Jun 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 27°C on June 23? Jun 23 $20 +$29 +145%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 39°C on June 23? Jun 23 $15 −$14 -93%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on June 23? Jun 23 $16 −$7 -42%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 26°C on June 23? Jun 23 $21 −$21 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 29°C on June 22? Jun 22 $2 −$1 -50%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 28°C on June 22? Jun 22 $10 +$19 +191%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 27°C on June 22? Jun 22 $11 −$11 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 19°C on June 16? Jun 16 $6 −$1 -16%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on June 16? Jun 16 $6 −$6 -90%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on June 6? Jun 06 $4 +$4 +102%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 24°C on June 6? Jun 06 $3 +$6 +171%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 6? Jun 06 $5 −$4 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 23°C on June 6? Jun 05 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 19°C on June 5? Jun 05 $5 +$1 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 25°C on June 5? Jun 05 $6 −$3 -58%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 25°C on June 5? Jun 05 $4 −$4 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on June 4? Jun 04 $6 +$14 +223%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on June 4? Jun 04 $12 −$9 -74%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 23°C on June 3? Jun 03 $8 +$13 +155%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 24°C on June 3? Jun 03 $8 −$7 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 24°C on June 2? Jun 01 $20 −$7 -34%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on June 1? Jun 01 $7 −$4 -50%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 1? Jun 01 $9 +$4 +43%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 29? SELL Yes 90¢ $45 1h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 35°C or below on June 29? SELL Yes 95¢ $10 3h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 36°C or below on June 29? SELL Yes 96¢ $48 3h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 36°C or below on June 29? SELL Yes 94¢ $5 3h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 36°C or below on June 29? SELL Yes 94¢ $11 3h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 37°C on June 29? SELL Yes 10¢ $1 4h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 35°C or below on June 29? SELL Yes 91¢ $55 4h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 36°C or below on June 29? SELL Yes 96¢ $19 5h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 36°C or below on June 29? SELL Yes 96¢ $4 5h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 35°C or below on June 29? SELL Yes 55¢ $4 5h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 35°C or below on June 29? SELL Yes 30¢ $3 6h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 35°C or below on June 29? SELL Yes 39¢ $5 6h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 30°C on June 29? SELL Yes 62¢ $61 6h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 30°C on June 29? BUY Yes 51¢ $3 7h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 37°C on June 29? BUY Yes 38¢ $11 7h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 30°C on June 29? BUY Yes 47¢ $5 7h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 30°C on June 29? BUY Yes 46¢ $2 7h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 29°C on June 29? BUY Yes 25¢ $21 14h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 37°C on June 29? BUY Yes 41¢ $14 14h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 30°C on June 29? BUY Yes 30¢ $24 14h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 29? BUY Yes 29¢ $15 14h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 35°C or below on June 29? BUY Yes 55¢ $58 15h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 36°C or below on June 29? BUY Yes 48¢ $13 18h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 36°C or below on June 29? BUY Yes 44¢ $14 19h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 36°C or below on June 29? BUY Yes 30¢ $3 21h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 36°C or below on June 29? BUY Yes 30¢ $3 21h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 36°C or below on June 29? BUY Yes 30¢ $4 21h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 37°C on June 29? BUY Yes 42¢ $16 22h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 39°C on June 28? BUY Yes 36¢ $2 30h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 39°C on June 28? BUY Yes 36¢ $9 30h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.13 · official $0.13 (match) · 3500 history records