Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T04:34:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AE 0xae8f…1cc3 sports 387 markets active 2h ago coverage 240d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1,829 (+4%) realized +$1,879 · open −$50
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate40%153W / 233L
Drawdown94%max
Avg bet$116per market
Trades / day5.5pace
Fees−$815est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$64
7 days+$258
14 days−$1,099
30 days−$1,302
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 96% +$1,320
crypto 3% −$438
politics 1% +$195
other 0% +$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-11.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +28.9% +16.6% 50% 50% +18.2%
≤30d 88 -6.7% -15.6% 38% 38% -15.9%
≤90d 281 -11.2% -19.7% 38% 38% -9.8%
all 386 -1.9% -11.3% 40% 39% -7.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.3% 39% -7.2%
10% -19.7% 39% -16.1%
15% -27.5% 37% -24.2%
20% -34.6% 36% -31.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +26% → late -30% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$146 vs −$91 · ×1.6 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.05 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

240d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1,879
Unrealized−$50
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses153 / 233
Est. fees paid−$815
Open positions1
Markets (closed)386 / 387
History coverage240d
Avg bet$116
Trades / day5.5
Drawdown94%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 386 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Major League Cricket: Washington Freedom vs Mi New York Mi New York $50 $0 −$50 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Pakistan vs Bangladesh Jun 20 $159 −$159 -100%
Indiana Fever vs. Atlanta Dream Jun 20 $200 +$299 +150%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Ireland Jun 20 $63 +$64 +101%
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan Jun 20 $142 −$137 -97%
T20 Series Bangladesh vs. Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 19 $119 −$2 -2%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs Scotland Jun 18 $159 +$194 +122%
T20 Series West Indies vs Sri lanka: West Indies vs Sri Lanka Jun 14 $439 +$404 +92%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $666 −$327 -49%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 206.5 Jun 14 $153 −$138 -91%
T20 ACC Premier Cup, Women: Thailand vs United Arab Emirates Jun 13 $152 −$152 -100%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Scotland vs Ireland Jun 13 $149 −$149 -100%
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan Jun 13 $103 −$97 -95%
Golden State Valkyries vs. Seattle Storm Jun 13 $201 +$100 +50%
Golden State Valkyries vs. Seattle Storm: O/U 156.5 Jun 13 $5 −$4 -88%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs Sri Lanka Jun 13 $258 −$175 -68%
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 12 $249 −$249 -100%
T20 Series West Indies vs Sri lanka: West Indies vs Sri Lanka Jun 12 $73 −$71 -98%
T20 Asian Games, Qualifier: Nepal vs Hong Kong, China Jun 11 $130 −$38 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 11 $57 −$57 -100%
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 11 $197 −$104 -53%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 220.5 Jun 11 $335 −$335 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 216.5 Jun 11 $417 −$35 -8%
Phoenix Mercury vs. Golden State Valkyries: O/U 161.5 Jun 10 $100 +$123 +123%
T20 Blast: Essex vs Kent Jun 09 $212 −$207 -97%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $489 +$250 +51%
Golden State Valkyries vs. Las Vegas Aces Jun 08 $66 −$3 -4%
T20 Asian Games, Qualifier: Hong Kong, China vs Malaysia Jun 08 $21 −$21 -100%
T20 Asian Games, Qualifier: Nepal vs Oman Jun 08 $82 −$82 -100%
T20 Blast: Middlesex vs Essex Jun 07 $172 −$163 -95%
T20 Blast: Lancashire vs Glamorgan Jun 07 $108 +$172 +160%
Indiana Fever vs. New York Liberty Jun 07 $54 +$66 +122%
ODI Series West Indies vs Sri Lanka: West Indies vs Sri Lanka Jun 07 $61 −$5 -8%
Seattle Storm vs. Minnesota Lynx: O/U 162.5 Jun 06 $264 −$252 -96%
T20 Blast: Durham vs Northamptonshire Jun 06 $233 +$306 +131%
T20 ACC Premier Cup, Women: Nepal vs Hong Kong, China Jun 06 $111 +$129 +116%
Phoenix Mercury vs. PortlandFire Jun 06 $87 +$107 +124%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 219.5 Jun 06 $204 −$204 -100%
T20 Blast: Surrey vs Hampshire Jun 05 $178 −$68 -38%
T20 Blast: Sussex vs Leicestershire Jun 05 $96 +$48 +50%
T20 Blast: Worcestershire vs Glamorgan Jun 05 $131 +$198 +152%
Golden State Valkyries vs. Minnesota Lynx Jun 05 $91 −$72 -79%
T20 Blast: Somerset vs Glamorgan Jun 05 $219 +$186 +85%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 208.5 Jun 04 $201 −$201 -100%
ODI Series West Indies vs Sri Lanka: West Indies vs Sri Lanka Jun 04 $170 −$170 -100%
T20 ACC Premier Cup, Women: Bhutan vs Hong Kong, China Jun 04 $51 −$38 -75%
T20 Scotland Tri-Series, Women: Scotland vs Netherlands Jun 04 $82 −$82 -100%
T20 Series England vs. India, Women: England vs India Jun 03 $182 −$169 -93%
PortlandFire vs. Golden State Valkyries: O/U 165.5 Jun 03 $165 +$165 +100%
T20 Ireland Tri-Series, Women: Ireland vs West Indies Jun 02 $318 +$228 +72%
T20 Ireland Tri-Series, Women: Ireland vs Pakistan Jun 02 $210 −$210 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Major League Cricket: Washington Freedom vs Mi New York BUY Mi New York $51 1h
Indiana Fever vs. Atlanta Dream SELL Atlanta Dream 100¢ $499 9h
Indiana Fever vs. Atlanta Dream BUY Atlanta Dream 39¢ $200 10h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Pakistan vs Bangladesh BUY Pakistan 51¢ $5 12h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Pakistan vs Bangladesh BUY Pakistan 55¢ $154 12h
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan SELL Afghanistan $4 15h
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan BUY Afghanistan $21 19h
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan BUY Afghanistan 11¢ $72 21h
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan BUY Afghanistan 11¢ $1 21h
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan BUY Afghanistan 11¢ $45 21h
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan BUY Afghanistan 11¢ $3 21h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Ireland BUY Ireland 17¢ $20 32h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Ireland SELL Ireland 60¢ $127 32h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Ireland BUY Ireland 20¢ $3 33h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Ireland BUY Ireland 20¢ $16 33h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Ireland BUY Ireland 20¢ $16 33h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Ireland BUY Ireland 20¢ $8 33h
T20 Series Bangladesh vs. Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia SELL Bangladesh 44¢ $49 42h
T20 Series Bangladesh vs. Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia SELL Bangladesh 44¢ $30 42h
T20 Series Bangladesh vs. Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia SELL Bangladesh 44¢ $1 42h
T20 Series Bangladesh vs. Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia SELL Bangladesh 44¢ $1 42h
T20 Series Bangladesh vs. Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia SELL Bangladesh 44¢ $1 42h
T20 Series Bangladesh vs. Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia SELL Bangladesh 44¢ $2 42h
T20 Series Bangladesh vs. Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia SELL Bangladesh 44¢ $10 42h
T20 Series Bangladesh vs. Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia SELL Bangladesh 44¢ $10 42h
T20 Series Bangladesh vs. Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia SELL Bangladesh 44¢ $10 42h
T20 Series Bangladesh vs. Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia SELL Bangladesh 44¢ $3 42h
T20 Series Bangladesh vs. Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia BUY Bangladesh 19¢ $31 43h
T20 Series Bangladesh vs. Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia BUY Bangladesh 21¢ $26 43h
T20 Series Bangladesh vs. Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia BUY Bangladesh 25¢ $62 43h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.37 · official $0.37 (match) · 1679 history records