Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T22:45:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

AE
0xae8e…951f
crypto · 41 markets active 0h ago
0.5score
+$4 +1%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$2 · open +$2
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFresh edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$51
Realized−$2
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses14 / 20
Open positions7
Markets (closed)34 / 41
History coverage46d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day1.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%
Chart Positions 7 History 34 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$45
7 days+$45
14 days+$45
30 days+$45
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Yes 49¢ 48¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Yes 46¢ 44¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-3%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Yes 46¢ 44¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-3%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? Yes 23¢ 22¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-2%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Down 43¢ 52¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+22%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET Up 78¢ 86¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+11%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Up 0¢ 48¢ $0 $2 +$2 (+0%)
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? No 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 30? No 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by April 30? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on April 30? No 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on April 30? No 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026? No 0¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
QatarEnergy announces/resumes LNG production in Qatar by April 30? No 0¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on April 30? No 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk’s net worth be at least $670b on April 30? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase April 28-May 4? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 13 $10 −$4 -41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 13 $10 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 13 $26 +$17 +68%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 5PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 5PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$7 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5PM ET Jun 13 $11 −$7 -65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 13 $21 −$5 -22%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$2 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$5 +97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$6 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4PM ET Jun 13 $26 −$1 -4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 4PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$4 -71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$3 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$26 +490%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 13 $10 +$1 +13%
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase April 28-May 4? May 03 $1 −$1 -93%
QatarEnergy announces/resumes LNG production in Qatar by April 30? May 03 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET May 01 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 1, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET May 01 $5 +$3 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET May 01 $5 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET May 01 $5 $0 +2%
Will the UAE leave the Gulf Cooperation Council by April 30, 2026? May 01 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Elon Musk’s net worth be at least $670b on April 30? Apr 30 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Apr 30 $5 −$1 -27%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by April 30? Apr 30 $1 −$1 -96%
Will Trump dance today? Apr 30 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 30? Apr 30 $1 −$1 -93%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on April 30? Apr 30 $1 −$1 -93%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on April 30? Apr 30 $1 −$1 -93%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on April 30? Apr 30 $1 −$1 -93%
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026? Apr 30 $2 −$2 -100%
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026? Apr 30 $7 −$7 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 71% +$39
other 19% −$21
world 6% −$8
politics 4% −$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $5 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $5 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET SELL Up 11¢ $1 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET SELL Down 87¢ $5 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $5 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $5 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $5 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET SELL Up 38¢ $4 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $5 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $26 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $5 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET SELL Up 68¢ $5 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $5 37m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 5PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $5 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET SELL Up 75¢ $15 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5PM ET SELL Down 0¢ $0 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5PM ET BUY Down 3¢ $5 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET SELL Down 9¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET SELL Down 49¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET SELL Up 52¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5PM ET SELL Up 33¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 5PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $5 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-22.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 +44.3% +30.6% 65% 53% +14.9%
≤30d 17 +44.3% +30.6% 65% 53% +14.9%
≤90d 34 -14.5% -22.7% 41% 29% -10.4%
all 34 -14.5% -22.7% 41% 29% -10.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover1.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.7% 29% -10.4%
10% -30.1% 24% -19.0%
15% -36.8% 24% -26.8%
20% -43.0% 21% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $50.69 · official $51.15 (match) · 106 history records