Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T11:13:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AE 0xae8e…4c85 other 40 markets active 0h ago coverage 15d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$14 (+3%) realized +$13 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate38%12W / 20L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day3.1pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit35%portable
Net worth$93now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$4
7 days+$22
14 days+$10
30 days+$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 45% $0
sports 26% −$29
weather 16% +$1
tech 7% $0
crypto 5% +$19
world 1% +$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-13.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -19.0% -26.7% 40% 30% +3.5%
≤30d 32 -4.1% -13.3% 38% 22% -7.4%
≤90d 32 -4.1% -13.3% 38% 22% -7.4%
all 32 -4.1% -13.3% 38% 22% -7.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.3% 22% -7.4%
10% -21.6% 16% -16.3%
15% -29.1% 12% -24.4%
20% -36.1% 9% -31.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 48% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
42% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +34% → late -42% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$4 · ×1.9 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.14 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

15d coverage
Net worth$93
Realized+$13
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses12 / 20
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions8
Markets (closed)32 / 40
History coverage15d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day3.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit35%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 32 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 78¢ 80¢ $39 $40 +$1 (+2%)
GPT-5.6 released by June 26, 2026? No 99¢ 98¢ $40 $39 −$0 (-1%)
Ethereum Up or Down on June 26? Up 13¢ 26¢ $2 $5 +$2 (+96%)
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 3 France? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Exact Score: Uruguay 1 - 3 Spain? Yes 5¢ 4¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-10%)
Will Lionel Messi win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 28¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+72%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $1 $2 +$0 (+26%)
Will Mikel Oyarzabal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 3¢ $4 $1 −$3 (-64%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 15 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $49 +$2 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 25? Jun 25 $2 −$1 -95%
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 1 Mexico? Jun 24 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? Jun 24 $43 +$7 +16%
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 23 $19 $0 -2%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $5 $0 -2%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $1 $0 -19%
Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 1 Canada? Jun 20 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 20 $4 +$2 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 19? Jun 19 $25 +$18 +73%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $22 +$4 +17%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $3 −$3 -97%
Exact Score: Czechia 3 - 0 South Africa? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 2 Colombia? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -97%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 5.5 Jun 18 $3 −$3 -97%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $25 −$25 -98%
Exact Score: England 3 - 3 Croatia? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -98%
Exact Score: England 1 - 1 Croatia? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -97%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 2 DR Congo? Jun 17 $48 +$2 +4%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $35 +$1 +4%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $17 −$17 -100%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $2 $0 -22%
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 1 Algeria? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -97%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Algeria? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -97%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $28 +$7 +26%
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 2 New Zealand? Jun 16 $4 +$20 +454%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 1 Uruguay? Jun 16 $3 +$21 +786%
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 1 Egypt? Jun 15 $1 $0 -13%
Exact Score: Belgium 3 - 1 Egypt? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 1 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 12? Jun 12 $18 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on June 11? Jun 11 $69 +$1 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Uruguay 1 - 3 Spain? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 15m
GPT-5.6 released by June 26, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $40 1h
Ethereum Up or Down on June 26? BUY Up 13¢ $3 8h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 97¢ $49 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 25? BUY Up 23¢ $2 20h
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 1 Mexico? BUY Yes 6¢ $3 35h
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? BUY No 86¢ $43 38h
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? SELL Yes 88¢ $19 2d
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 89¢ $19 2d
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? SELL No 64¢ $5 3d
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 64¢ $5 3d
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 78¢ $40 3d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 11¢ $1 4d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 4d
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 3 France? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 5d
Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 1 Canada? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 6d
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY No 71¢ $4 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 19? BUY Up 56¢ $25 7d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 6¢ $3 7d
Exact Score: Czechia 3 - 0 South Africa? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 7d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 85¢ $22 8d
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 2 Colombia? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 8d
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 6¢ $3 8d
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 49¢ $25 8d
Exact Score: England 3 - 3 Croatia? BUY Yes 13¢ $3 8d
Exact Score: England 1 - 1 Croatia? BUY Yes 12¢ $3 8d
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 96¢ $26 8d
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 96¢ $10 8d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 60¢ $17 8d
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 2 DR Congo? BUY No 96¢ $48 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $93.07 · official $93.07 (match) · 58 history records