Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T11:38:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
AE 0xae8e…959a crypto 213 markets active 4d ago coverage 8d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$16 (+2%) realized +$16 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate45%95W / 118L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day31.8pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$108
14 days+$2
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-8.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 69 -32.7% -39.1% 30% 30% -45.8%
≤30d 213 +1.6% -8.1% 45% 45% -9.3%
≤90d 213 +1.6% -8.1% 45% 45% -9.3%
all 213 +1.6% -8.1% 45% 45% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover31.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.1% 45% -9.3%
10% ← realistic here -16.9% 45% -18.0%
15% -24.9% 45% -25.9%
20% -32.3% 45% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +20% → late -16% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$4 · ×1.25 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.0 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$16
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses95 / 118
Open positions0
Markets (closed)213 / 213
History coverage8d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day31.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 213 Trades
no open positions (104 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 12 $3 +$2 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 12 $3 +$4 +134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 12 $3 +$3 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 12 $3 +$2 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 12 $3 +$2 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 12 $3 +$2 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 11 $5 +$9 +166%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 11 $3 +$4 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 11 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 11 $3 +$5 +178%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 11 $3 +$5 +146%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 11 $3 +$4 +127%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 11 $6 +$7 +120%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 11 $3 +$4 +127%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 11 $5 +$7 +139%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 11 $3 +$4 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 11 $3 +$4 +127%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 11 $3 +$4 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 10 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 10 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 10 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 10 $6 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 10 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 10 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 10 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 10 $3 +$5 +156%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 10 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 10 $3 +$4 +124%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $3 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 350 history records