Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T13:01:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

AE
0xae8b…771a
sports · 37 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
−$35 -4%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$37 · open −$2
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$238
Realized−$37
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses17 / 12
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions8
Markets (closed)29 / 37
History coverage67d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%
Chart Positions 8 History 29 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3
7 days−$7
14 days−$1
30 days−$39
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Yes 94¢ 94¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-0%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Yes 83¢ 82¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Yes 67¢ 66¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-1%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Yes 91¢ 90¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 76¢ 76¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Yes 71¢ 70¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Yes 48¢ 48¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Yes 62¢ 62¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Anyones Legend 80¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
LoL: JD Gaming vs Invictus Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Invictus Gaming 32¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
LoL: JD Gaming vs Top Esports (BO5) - LPL Playoffs JD Gaming 55¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Yes 54¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO3) - Esports World Cup China Qualifier Phase 2 Bilibili Gaming 31¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $10 +$3 +33%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -99%
LoL: EDward Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 03 $50 +$4 +8%
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs Dplus KIA (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 31 $10 +$2 +17%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs May 31 $30 −$30 -99%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Top Esports (BO5) - LPL Playoffs May 31 $20 −$20 -99%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO3) - Esports World Cup China Q May 21 $5 −$5 -98%
LoL: Team WE vs Ninjas in Pyjamas (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend May 16 $20 +$8 +38%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend May 15 $20 +$9 +46%
LoL: Team WE vs Anyone's Legend (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend May 13 $20 +$2 +12%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Invictus Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend May 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026? May 04 $200 +$30 +15%
LoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs JD Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Apr 22 $20 −$20 -100%
LoL: Team WE vs Oh My God (BO3) - Esports World Cup China Qualifier Ph Apr 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on April 9, 2026? Apr 13 $10 −$10 -100%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Apr 13 $40 +$7 +18%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? Apr 11 $10 −$1 -7%
Houthi military action against Israel by April 15, 2026? Apr 11 $1 $0 +3%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz in Ap Apr 11 $5 $0 -0%
LoL: Team WE vs Invictus Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Apr 11 $20 +$4 +22%
Will Trump endorse an Israeli Ceasefire in Lebanon by April 30? Apr 11 $2 $0 +9%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Anyone's Legend (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Apr 10 $2 +$3 +129%
US x Iran meeting by April 10, 2026? Apr 10 $20 +$13 +63%
LoL: Top Esports vs JD Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Apr 10 $5 $0 -3%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Ninjas in Pyjamas (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Apr 09 $20 −$20 -100%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Apr 09 $20 +$1 +6%
Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on April 8, 2026? Apr 09 $4 +$1 +32%
LoL: Top Esports vs Team WE - Game 1 Winner Apr 08 $4 +$1 +38%
LoL: Top Esports vs Team WE (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Apr 08 $11 +$4 +32%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 39% −$64
other 28% −$8
finance 24% +$30
world 6% +$3
crypto 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 62¢ $10 1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $20 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $20 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 83¢ $50 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $40 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 91¢ $30 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $20 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $50 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 98¢ $13 34h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 73¢ $10 35h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $10 2d
LoL: EDward Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Bilibili Gaming 92¢ $50 14d
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Anyones Legend 80¢ $30 14d
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs Dplus KIA (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 BUY Dplus KIA 85¢ $10 14d
LoL: JD Gaming vs Top Esports (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY JD Gaming 55¢ $20 14d
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO3) - Esports World Cup China Q BUY Bilibili Gaming 31¢ $5 24d
LoL: JD Gaming vs Invictus Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend BUY Invictus Gaming 32¢ $5 32d
LoL: Team WE vs Ninjas in Pyjamas (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend BUY Ninjas in Pyjamas 72¢ $20 32d
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend BUY Bilibili Gaming 68¢ $20 32d
LoL: Team WE vs Anyone's Legend (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend BUY Anyones Legend 89¢ $20 32d
LoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs JD Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend BUY JD Gaming 66¢ $20 63d
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend BUY Bilibili Gaming 84¢ $30 63d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? SELL No 76¢ $9 63d
Houthi military action against Israel by April 15, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $1 63d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz in Ap SELL Yes 26¢ $5 63d
LoL: Team WE vs Invictus Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend SELL Invictus Gaming 100¢ $16 63d
Will Trump endorse an Israeli Ceasefire in Lebanon by April 30? SELL Yes 60¢ $3 63d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026? BUY No 87¢ $200 64d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz in Ap BUY Yes 26¢ $5 64d
Houthi military action against Israel by April 15, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $1 64d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-21.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -33.4% -39.7% 50% 50% -39.5%
≤30d 9 -28.6% -35.4% 56% 44% -29.5%
≤90d 29 -13.4% -21.7% 59% 45% -15.0%
all 29 -13.4% -21.7% 59% 45% -15.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.7% 45% -15.0%
10% -29.1% 28% -23.1%
15% -36.0% 17% -30.6%
20% -42.3% 7% -37.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $238.49 · official $238.49 (match) · 67 history records