trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 5¢ | 5¢ | $162 | $160 | −$2 (-1%) |
| Germany vs. Finland: O/U 4.5 | Over | 39¢ | 0¢ | $4 | $0 | −$4 (-100%) |
| WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on April 10? | Up | 63¢ | 0¢ | $6 | $0 | −$6 (-100%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Jun 10 | $2 | $0 | -18% |
| Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Jun 10 | $2 | $0 | -16% |
| Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Jun 10 | $2 | $0 | -6% |
| Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Jun 10 | $2 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Jun 10 | $2 | $0 | +14% |
| Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Jun 10 | $2 | +$1 | +42% |
| Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Jun 10 | $2 | +$1 | +50% |
| Germany vs. Finland: O/U 4.5 | May 31 | $4 | −$4 | -100% |
| Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C or below on April 11? | Apr 12 | $11 | +$33 | +297% |
| WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on April 10? | Apr 10 | $6 | −$6 | -98% |
| Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 25°C on March 27? | Mar 29 | $5 | +$1 | +16% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 7 | +9.6% | -0.9% | 57% | 43% | -0.9% |
| ≤30d | 8 | -4.1% | -13.3% | 50% | 38% | -22.5% |
| ≤90d | 11 | +16.3% | +5.3% | 55% | 45% | +45.4% |
| all | 11 | +16.3% | +5.3% | 55% | 45% | +45.4% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | +5.3% | 45% | +45.4% |
| 10% | -4.8% | 27% | +31.5% |
| 15% | -14.0% | 27% | +18.8% |
| 20% | -22.4% | 18% | +7.2% |