Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:54:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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AE 0xae8a…7889 crypto 211 markets active 0h ago coverage 24d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$15 (+1%) realized +$15 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate55%116W / 94L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day26.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$18now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$31
7 days+$19
14 days+$19
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 96% +$18
weather 4% −$20
sports 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-13.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 167 +1.7% -8.0% 57% 46% -8.7%
≤30d 210 -4.8% -13.8% 55% 41% -9.5%
≤90d 210 -4.8% -13.8% 55% 41% -9.5%
all 210 -4.8% -13.8% 55% 41% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover26.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.8% 41% -9.5%
10% ← realistic here -22.1% 23% -18.2%
15% -29.6% 9% -26.1%
20% -36.5% 5% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
24% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×0.81 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.99 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

24d coverage
Net worth$18
Realized+$15
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses116 / 94
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)210 / 211
History coverage24d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day26.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 210 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Up 62¢ 66¢ $9 $9 +$1 (+6%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Down 33¢ 34¢ $8 $8 +$0 (+6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 19 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 17 $34 −$4 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 17 $12 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 17 $9 +$16 +177%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 17 $8 +$2 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 17 $22 −$2 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 17 $25 +$4 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 17 $16 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 17 $15 −$3 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 17 $9 −$1 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 17 $11 −$4 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 17 $8 −$1 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 17 $10 +$11 +109%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 17 $16 −$1 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 17 $22 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 17 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 17 $13 −$1 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$3 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 17 $14 −$1 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 17 $33 −$6 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 17 $15 +$6 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 17 $29 −$5 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 17 $8 −$2 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 17 $7 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 17 $18 −$11 -61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 17 $35 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 17 $30 −$6 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 17 $7 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 17 $29 −$4 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 17 $6 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 17 $7 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 17 $44 −$1 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 17 $48 +$6 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 17 $35 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$4 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 17 $37 −$3 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 17 $36 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 17 $14 −$3 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 17 $49 −$8 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 17 $49 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 17 $20 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 17 $30 −$1 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$2 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 17 $15 −$4 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$3 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +20%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $9 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $5 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $3 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $6 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $6 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $5 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $6 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $5 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $6 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $5 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $5 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Up 23¢ $2 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $5 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $4 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $3 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $3 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $6 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $5 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Down 20¢ $2 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $2 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $5 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $5 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $3 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $9 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $1 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $5 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $3 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $11 38m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $17.61 · official $17.80 (match) · 822 history records