Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T19:56:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AE 0xae89…90b8 crypto 857 markets active 0h ago coverage 13d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 13d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (213 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$4,952 (+11%) realized +$29,562 · open −$24,610
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR16%break-even
Win rate87%741W / 114L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$55per market
Trades / day213.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$29,882now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 13d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 49% −$7,847
world 26% −$16,763
crypto 25% −$17
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (213 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +16%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 361 -1.3% -10.7% 86% 17% -10.1%
≤30d 855 +0.1% -9.4% 87% 16% -9.6%
≤90d 855 +0.1% -9.4% 87% 16% -9.6%
all 855 +0.1% -9.4% 87% 16% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover213.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.4% 16% -9.6%
10% ← realistic here -18.1% 5% -18.3%
15% -26.0% 1% -26.2%
20% -33.3% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
79% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$11 · ×0.15 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.99 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

13d coverage
Net worth$29,882
Realized+$29,562
Unrealized−$24,610
Win rate (resolved)87%
Wins / losses741 / 114
Open positions8
Markets (closed)855 / 857
History coverage13d ⚠
Avg bet$55
Trades / day213.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 855 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? No 83¢ 90¢ $9,130 $9,955 +$825 (+9%)
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Yes 26¢ 71¢ $2,400 $6,414 +$4,014 (+167%)
Will Anthropic IPO by September 30, 2026? Yes 35¢ 22¢ $9,548 $5,789 −$3,759 (-39%)
Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting? No 20¢ 73¢ $1,112 $4,038 +$2,926 (+263%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 41¢ 5¢ $18,902 $2,139 −$16,763 (-89%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 47¢ 3¢ $13,090 $798 −$12,292 (-94%)
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 3.75% at the end of 2026? Yes 20¢ 39¢ $268 $508 +$240 (+90%)
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 4.0% at the end of 2026? Yes 6¢ 32¢ $43 $241 +$198 (+466%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 15 $18 +$3 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 15 $20 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 15 $30 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 15 $19 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 15 $30 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 15 $17 +$4 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 15 $20 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 15 $20 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 15 $20 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 15 $19 +$2 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 15 $20 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 15 $19 +$2 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 15 $20 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 15 $27 +$5 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 15 $30 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 15 $30 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 15 $19 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 15 $20 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 15 $19 +$2 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 15 $9 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 15 $20 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 15 $20 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 15 $30 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 15 $19 +$2 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 15 $30 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 15 $30 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 15 $30 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 15 $20 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 15 $30 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 15 $20 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 15 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 15 $16 +$5 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 15 $20 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 15 $20 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 15 $19 +$2 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 14 $10 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 14 $18 +$3 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 14 $30 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 14 $19 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 14 $18 +$3 +14%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $10 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $9 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $9 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $9 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $9 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $10 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $10 4h
Will Anthropic IPO by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 20¢ $20 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $10 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $10 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $10 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $10 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $10 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $29,882.07 · official $29,770.07 (match) · 3500 history records