Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T03:44:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
AE 0xae88…5576 crypto 100 markets active 1h ago coverage 232d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$3 (+0%) realized +$4 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -21% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate61%60W / 39L
Drawdown98%max
Avg bet$106per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$44now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 85% −$20
sports 7% +$2
weather 2% +$10
politics 2% +$3
tech 2% +$2
other 1% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-28.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤90d 14 -63.3% -66.8% 36% 0% -13.5%
all 99 -21.2% -28.7% 61% 1% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -28.7% 1% -9.5%
10% -35.6% 1% -18.2%
15% -41.8% 1% -26.1%
20% -47.5% 1% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
98% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -21% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +17% → late -59% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$5 · ×0.64 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.01 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

232d coverage
Net worth$44
Realized+$4
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses60 / 39
Open positions1
Markets (closed)99 / 100
History coverage232d
Avg bet$106
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown98%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 99 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,600 and $1,700 on June 26? No 94¢ 91¢ $45 $44 −$1 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 34 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on June 5? Jun 04 $2 −$2 -94%
Will Solana reach $90 May 18-24? May 25 $49 +$1 +2%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on May 20? May 19 $1 −$1 -94%
Will the price of Solana be between $80 and $90 on May 13? May 13 $48 +$1 +3%
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase May 5-11? May 11 $3 −$3 -94%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,400 and $2,500 on May 10? May 09 $3 −$2 -94%
Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (LOW) $55 Week of April 6 2026 May 02 $52 +$1 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on January 28? Apr 25 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on January 27? Apr 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.20 and $1.30 on April 13? Apr 13 $1 −$1 -93%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,100 and $2,200 on March 29? Apr 10 $52 +$2 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on January 26? Mar 31 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,100 on January 24? Mar 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Solana be above $90 on March 28? Mar 28 $53 +$2 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on March 26? Mar 26 $42 +$2 +4%
Will XRP dip to $1.30 on March 21? Mar 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Solana be between $80 and $90 on March 17? Mar 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the price of Solana be between $80 and $90 on February 1? Jan 31 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Solana dip to $110 in January? Jan 31 $102 −$102 -100%
Will Ethena dip to $0.12 in January? Jan 31 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Solana be above $110 on January 30? Jan 31 $97 +$3 +3%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,900 on January 30? Jan 30 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be less than $2,500 on January 30? Jan 30 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,500 and $2,600 on January 30? Jan 30 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $3,000 and $3,100 on January 29? Jan 30 $102 +$3 +2%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.90 and $2.00 on January 30? Jan 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.80 on January 29? Jan 29 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,100 on January 28? Jan 29 $101 +$3 +3%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,700 and $2,800 on January 27? Jan 28 $105 +$2 +2%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,000 on January 26? Jan 27 $107 +$3 +3%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.70 and $1.80 on January 27? Jan 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Howard Bison vs. Coppin State Eagles Jan 26 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $90,000 and $92,000 on January 26 Jan 25 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 24, 8PM ET Jan 25 $118 +$3 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on January 25? Jan 25 $3 −$3 -100%
XRP Up or Down - January 24, 6PM ET Jan 24 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $86,000 and $88,000 on January 24 Jan 24 $125 +$3 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on January 24? Jan 24 $4 −$4 -100%
Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks vs. Appalachian State Mountaineers Jan 24 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $86,000 on January 23? Jan 23 $121 +$2 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $94,000 on January 22? Jan 22 $127 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down on January 22? Jan 22 $4 −$4 -100%
VU of Lynchburg Dragons vs. Morgan State Bears Jan 21 $124 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 20, 4PM ET Jan 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of XRP be above $2.00 on January 20? Jan 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on January 20? Jan 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down on January 19? Jan 19 $128 +$1 +1%
UTSA Roadrunners vs. Memphis Tigers Jan 19 $127 +$3 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $94,000 on January 17? Jan 18 $120 +$3 +3%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $3,100 and $3,200 on January 16? Jan 17 $119 +$2 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,600 and $1,700 on June 26? BUY No 94¢ $45 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on June 5? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 21d
Will Solana reach $90 May 18-24? BUY No 98¢ $0 32d
Will Solana reach $90 May 18-24? BUY No 98¢ $49 32d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on May 20? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 37d
Will the price of Solana be between $80 and $90 on May 13? BUY No 97¢ $0 44d
Will the price of Solana be between $80 and $90 on May 13? BUY No 97¢ $48 44d
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase May 5-11? BUY No 7¢ $3 45d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,400 and $2,500 on May 10? BUY Yes 3¢ $3 47d
Will the price of XRP be between $1.20 and $1.30 on April 13? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 73d
Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (LOW) $55 Week of April 6 2026 BUY No 98¢ $52 76d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,100 and $2,200 on March 29? BUY No 97¢ $0 89d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,100 and $2,200 on March 29? BUY No 97¢ $52 89d
Will the price of Solana be above $90 on March 28? BUY No 97¢ $53 90d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on March 26? BUY No 96¢ $42 92d
Will XRP dip to $1.30 on March 21? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 96d
Will the price of Solana be between $80 and $90 on March 17? BUY Yes 3¢ $3 100d
Will the price of Solana be between $80 and $90 on February 1? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 145d
Will Solana dip to $110 in January? BUY No 95¢ $0 145d
Will Solana dip to $110 in January? BUY No 95¢ $101 145d
Will Ethena dip to $0.12 in January? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 145d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,900 on January 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 146d
Will the price of Solana be above $110 on January 30? BUY Yes 97¢ $97 146d
Will the price of Ethereum be less than $2,500 on January 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 146d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,500 and $2,600 on January 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $3 147d
Will the price of XRP be between $1.90 and $2.00 on January 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 147d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $3,000 and $3,100 on January 29? BUY No 98¢ $0 147d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $3,000 and $3,100 on January 29? BUY No 98¢ $102 147d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.80 on January 29? BUY No 4¢ $3 147d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,100 on January 28? BUY No 97¢ $101 148d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $43.97 · official $44.79 (match) · 202 history records