Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T22:56:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
AE 0xae87…d629 other 98 markets active 0h ago coverage 59d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$40 (+1%) realized +$33 · open +$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate53%41W / 37L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day3.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit45%portable
Net worth$444now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$23
7 days+$145
14 days+$145
30 days+$145
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 47% −$28
other 43% +$86
politics 9% −$13
sports 0% $0
economics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-16.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 +43.8% +30.1% 73% 65% +0.4%
≤30d 26 +43.8% +30.1% 73% 65% +0.4%
≤90d 78 -7.7% -16.5% 53% 40% -8.0%
all 78 -7.7% -16.5% 53% 40% -8.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.5% 40% -8.0%
10% -24.5% 31% -16.8%
15% -31.8% 23% -24.8%
20% -38.5% 15% -32.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
24% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -25% → late +9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$8 · ×1.02 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.13 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

59d coverage
Net worth$444
Realized+$33
Unrealized+$7
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses41 / 37
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions20
Markets (closed)78 / 98
History coverage59d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day3.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit45%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 20 History 78 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Yes 54¢ 64¢ $100 $118 +$18 (+18%)
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Yes 80¢ 80¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? No 92¢ 92¢ $99 $99 −$0 (-0%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Yes 48¢ 40¢ $45 $37 −$8 (-18%)
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? Yes 41¢ 40¢ $17 $16 −$0 (-1%)
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? No 78¢ 78¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-0%)
Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? Yes 74¢ 74¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Nicolás Maduro by June 30, 2026? No 67¢ 66¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? No 89¢ 88¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026? Yes 42¢ 40¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-4%)
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-12%)
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
No change in Bank of England’s interest rates after June 2026 meeting? No 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-5%)
Bank of England increases interest rates by 25 bps after June 2026 meeting? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-15%)
No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the June 2026 meeting? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-25%)
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-25%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 24 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 15 $276 +$32 +12%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Jun 15 $100 −$6 -6%
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 1 Egypt? Jun 15 $70 +$17 +24%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 14 $46 −$21 -46%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 13 $207 −$4 -2%
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in Jun 13 $51 −$5 -10%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $91 +$2 +2%
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $30 +$5 +16%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 11 $9 $0 -4%
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 15? Jun 11 $10 $0 -0%
Will Sweden be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? Jun 11 $20 −$2 -12%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 0 South Africa? Jun 11 $14 +$6 +44%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 11 $200 +$4 +2%
Will Israel be in the top 3 at Eurovision 2026? Jun 11 $1 +$1 +126%
Will United Kingdom come in last place at Eurovision 2026? Jun 11 $1 +$2 +212%
Will Moldova be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? Jun 11 $5 +$3 +69%
Will Romania be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? Jun 11 $10 +$2 +17%
Will Czechia be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? Jun 11 $10 +$3 +28%
Will Albania be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? Jun 11 $10 +$4 +37%
Will Australia be in the top 3 at Eurovision 2026? Jun 11 $5 +$11 +222%
Will Croatia be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? Jun 11 $10 +$7 +66%
Will Bulgaria be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? Jun 11 $23 +$7 +31%
Will Israel be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026? Jun 11 $29 +$12 +41%
Will Romania be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026? Jun 11 $21 +$22 +108%
Will Greece be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026? Jun 11 $21 +$25 +124%
Will Denmark be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? Jun 11 $48 +$17 +36%
Will Ukraine be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? May 16 $34 −$33 -97%
Will Italy be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? May 16 $9 −$8 -97%
Will Finland be the best Nordic country at Eurovision 2026? May 16 $10 $0 -3%
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $47 +$2 +4%
Will Romania win Eurovision 2026? May 15 $2 −$2 -96%
Will Australia win Eurovision 2026? May 15 $5 +$10 +225%
Will Belgium be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? May 15 $5 −$5 -95%
Will Poland be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? May 15 $5 −$5 -96%
Will Lithuania be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? May 15 $12 −$12 -96%
Will France win Eurovision 2026? May 15 $16 −$16 -95%
Will Israel win Eurovision 2026? May 15 $10 −$10 -96%
Will Denmark be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026? May 15 $21 −$20 -97%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? May 15 $1 −$1 -95%
Will Sweden be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? May 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Sweden win Eurovision 2026? May 15 $16 −$15 -95%
Will France be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? May 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Bulgaria advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final? May 15 $20 +$1 +6%
Will Latvia advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final? May 15 $20 +$10 +51%
Will Norway advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final? May 15 $20 +$11 +54%
Will Armenia advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final? May 15 $37 +$11 +30%
Will Cyprus advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final? May 15 $41 +$18 +45%
Will Luxembourg advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final? May 15 $51 +$18 +35%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? May 14 $11 −$11 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 41¢ $17 9m
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY Yes 0¢ $1 14m
No change in Bank of England’s interest rates after June 2026 meeting? BUY No 1¢ $1 34m
Bank of England increases interest rates by 25 bps after June 2026 mee BUY Yes 1¢ $1 34m
No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the June 2026 meetin BUY Yes 0¢ $1 35m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 21¢ $21 36m
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $99 48m
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? SELL Yes 66¢ $94 49m
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 70¢ $100 53m
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY Yes 24¢ $10 55m
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 56m
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 56m
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY Yes 80¢ $101 59m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 21¢ $47 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 21¢ $74 1h
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 5¢ $5 1h
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 1h
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 78¢ $10 1h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY Yes 0¢ $5 1h
Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? BUY Yes 74¢ $10 1h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY No 89¢ $10 1h
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Nicolás Maduro by June 30, 2026? BUY No 67¢ $10 1h
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 42¢ $10 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 46¢ $20 1h
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 1 Egypt? BUY Yes 84¢ $40 2h
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 1 Egypt? BUY Yes 75¢ $30 2h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 24¢ $162 6h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 50¢ $25 6h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 SELL Yes 18¢ $25 28h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 BUY Yes 33¢ $46 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $444.35 · official $441.45 (match) · 213 history records