Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T09:49:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AE 0xae85…d928 crypto 470 markets active 0h ago coverage 38d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$247 (-2%) realized −$247 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate54%253W / 216L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day39.1pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$7now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$9
7 days+$1
14 days−$80
30 days−$544
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$492
sports 0% −$29
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-14.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +9.8% -0.7% 64% 55% -7.3%
≤30d 209 -6.1% -15.1% 44% 39% -25.1%
≤90d 469 -5.2% -14.2% 54% 38% -13.9%
all 469 -5.2% -14.2% 54% 38% -13.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover39.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.2% 38% -13.9%
10% ← realistic here -22.4% 33% -22.2%
15% -29.9% 29% -29.7%
20% -36.8% 28% -36.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
28% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$10 · ×0.65 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.76 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

38d coverage
Net worth$7
Realized−$247
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses253 / 216
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)469 / 470
History coverage38d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day39.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 469 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Down 98¢ 98¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 120 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$3 +135%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$1 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 14 $8 +$4 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 14 $9 −$3 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 13 $4 +$1 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 13 $6 +$2 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 12 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 12 $6 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 01 $12 −$11 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 01 $21 −$9 -41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 01 $10 +$10 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 01 $5 −$4 -78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 01 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 01 $8 +$5 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 01 $40 −$31 -78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 01 $17 −$16 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 01 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 01 $1 +$1 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 01 $92 +$16 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 01 $41 +$5 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 01 $63 +$2 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 01 $63 −$60 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 01 $62 −$60 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 01 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 01 $33 −$2 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 01 $21 +$21 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 01 $42 +$66 +159%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 01 $72 −$70 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 01 $35 +$36 +103%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 01 $116 −$76 -66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 01 $246 +$53 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 01 $104 +$95 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 01 $68 −$37 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 01 $45 −$34 -76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 01 $31 +$39 +126%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 01 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 01 $2 +$5 +253%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 01 $33 −$33 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 01 $22 +$7 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 01 $157 −$131 -83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 01 $83 −$48 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 01 $41 −$40 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET May 29 $7 −$7 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET May 29 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET May 29 $1 +$1 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET May 29 $8 −$7 -83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET May 26 $14 −$9 -64%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $1 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $1 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $1 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $1 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $1 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET SELL Down 97¢ $2 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $1 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $1 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $5 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $1 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $1 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET SELL Down 25¢ $2 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Down 23¢ $1 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $1 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $5 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET SELL Up 67¢ $3 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $3 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET SELL Down 56¢ $7 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $9 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $3 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET SELL Up 42¢ $1 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $1 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET SELL Down 97¢ $5 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $3 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET SELL Up 52¢ $4 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $3 37h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6.94 · official $5.73 · 1700 history records