Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T06:57:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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AE 0xae85…c96a crypto 1809 markets active 2h ago coverage 55d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 54d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$3,327 (-18%) realized −$3,326 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%889W / 903L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day44.5pace
Fees−$78est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$29now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 55d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 49% −$759
sports 32% −$497
other 18% +$14
world 1% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-16.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 156 +9.4% -1.0% 47% 47% +0.9%
≤30d 765 -6.1% -15.1% 44% 44% -14.7%
≤90d 1792 -7.8% -16.6% 50% 50% -15.9%
all 1792 -7.8% -16.6% 50% 50% -15.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover44.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -16.6% 50% -15.9%
10% ← realistic here -24.6% 49% -23.9%
15% -31.8% 45% -31.3%
20% -38.5% 38% -38.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 1% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$9 · ×0.86 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

55d coverage
Net worth$29
Realized−$3,326
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses889 / 903
Est. fees paid−$78
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1792 / 1809
History coverage55d ⚠
Avg bet$10
Trades / day44.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1792 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Yes 67¢ 64¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 499 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $24 +$14 +60%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $10 +$12 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 21 $5 +$10 +198%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $45 −$45 -99%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $21 +$10 +46%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? AND Jun 21 $10 +$28 +270%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $15 +$18 +117%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $20 −$20 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 20 $5 +$9 +166%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20 Jun 20 $10 +$15 +145%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $20 +$12 +59%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $41 +$20 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 20 $5 +$9 +163%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 20 $5 +$10 +190%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 20 $5 +$5 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 20 $5 +$6 +116%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 20 $5 +$8 +149%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 20 $5 +$9 +170%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 20 $5 +$6 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 20 $10 +$11 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 20 $5 +$9 +170%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $30 +$22 +73%
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz Jun 20 $10 +$14 +134%
Halle Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 20 $5 −$5 -98%
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Ugo Humbert Jun 20 $10 −$10 -98%
Grass Court Championships: Linda Noskova vs Alexandra Eala Jun 20 $10 −$10 -98%
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Francisco Cerundolo Jun 20 $15 +$13 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 20 $5 +$12 +225%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 20 $5 +$4 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 20 $5 +$12 +224%
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Emilio Nava vs Hamish Stewart Jun 20 $15 −$15 -99%
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Matteo Arnaldi vs Alastair Gray Jun 20 $15 +$12 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -96%
Nottingham Open: Emma Navarro vs Viktorija Golubic Jun 20 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -97%
Nottingham Open: Karolina Pliskova vs Marie Bouzkova Jun 20 $10 −$10 -98%
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula Jun 20 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 20 $5 +$7 +143%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 20 $10 −$10 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 67¢ $30 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY 30¢ $10 1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 62¢ $24 9h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $10 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Up 24¢ $5 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $5 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $5 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $5 11h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY 44¢ $10 12h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY 45¢ $10 12h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $22 12h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? AND BUY 29¢ $10 25h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $23 25h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $21 28h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 62¢ $20 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $5 32h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $32 32h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $61 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 25¢ $5 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $14 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $5 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $5 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $5 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $10 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $11 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $5 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 19¢ $5 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $13 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $5 34h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $28.88 · official $38.88 · 3500 history records